CHANS-SD-YRB V1.0: a system dynamics model of the coupled human-natural systems for the Yellow River Basin

作者：Shan Sang, Yan Li, Shuang Zong, Lu Yu, Shuai Wang, Yanxu Liu, Xiaofan Wu, S. H. Song, Wenwu Zhao, Xuhui Wang, Bin Fu · 发表于：Geoscientific model development · 年份：2026 · DOI：10.5194/gmd-19-2039-2026 · 被引用次数：2 · 研究领域：Water Resources and Sustainability、Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies、Water-Energy-Food Nexus Studies

Abstract. Modeling the coupled human–natural systems (CHANS) is vital for understanding human–natural interactions and achieving regional sustainability, offering a powerful tool to alleviate human–water conflicts, ensuring food security, thereby supporting the region's pathway toward sustainable development. However, the scarcity of regional-scale CHANS models constrains progress in practical applications for regional sustainability. The Yellow River basin (YRB) is an ideal region for modeling regional CHANS due to its closely coupled human and natural systems, which are stressed by water and ecosystem fragility. Here, we developed the CHANS-SD-YRB model using the System Dynamics approach, integrating 10 sectors essential for modeling human-water interactions of the basin, including five human sectors (Population, Economy, Energy, Food, and Water Demand) and five natural sectors (Water Supply, Sediment, Land, Carbon, and Climate). The model can simulate evolution and feedbacks of the YRB CHANS annually at provincial and sub-basin scales, while conserving hydrological connectivity between sub-basins. The model can accurately reproduce historical CHANS dynamics, achieving strong quantitative agreement with historical data (R > 0.95 for human sectors and R > 0.7 for natural sectors), which supports its applicability for scenario analyses and future projections. We applied the model to explore human–natural system dynamics under a future baseline scenario, assuming the con...