Evaluating the effectiveness of carcass removal to mitigate highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in ground‐nesting bird colonies: A modelling approach

作者：Susannah Gold, Bart Donato, Vivienne Booth · 发表于：Ecological Solutions and Evidence · 年份：2026 · DOI：10.1002/2688-8319.70185 · 被引用次数：2 · 研究领域：Influenza Virus Research Studies、Avian ecology and behavior、Bird parasitology and diseases

Abstract Since 2020, impacts of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) on wild bird populations have escalated globally. Colonial nesting birds are particularly vulnerable, as high‐density colonies facilitate rapid viral transmission. At some affected sites, removal of carcasses has been carried out during outbreaks, with the aim to reduce transmission rates and resulting mortality. However, there remains substantial uncertainty over the effectiveness of this mitigation measure. In this study, we use an individual‐based model to simulate HPAI spread through a ground‐nesting colony. The model was calibrated using data from outbreaks in Black‐headed Gull ( Chroicocephalus ridibundus ) and Sandwich Tern ( Thalasseus sandvicensis ) colonies in the UK, using an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) approach. Following model fitting, we test different scenarios for carcass removal, ranging from daily removal of all carcasses to infrequent removal starting after a delay. Results indicated that removing carcasses can reduce adult mortality during outbreaks, but effectiveness was limited in the context of high‐density colonies. Mean reductions in mortality were less than 5% across the scenarios considered, and effectiveness decreased as the frequency of collection was reduced. However, removal of carcasses did substantially lower the predicted accumulation of virus in the colony, which could reduce spill‐over risk to other species, including through scavenging. When outbreaks occur...