Dynamic Changes and Driving Factors of Ecosystem Carbon Storage in Inland River Basins Under Land Use Change

作者：Jianwei Mao, Cun Chang, Sujuan Wu, Igboeli Emeka Edwin, Yonghui Wang, Wei Yan, Jian Liu, Yonglong Han, Xiaofei Ma · 发表于：Land Degradation and Development · 年份：2026 · DOI：10.1002/ldr.70475 · 研究领域：Land Use and Ecosystem Services、Remote Sensing in Agriculture、Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics

ABSTRACT Under the “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality” goals, the extent to which land use restructuring shapes regional carbon storage (CS) in inland river basins remains insufficiently quantified. Using the Tarim River Basin as a case study, we integrated multiple datasets at 1 km resolution for five time points from 2000 to 2023, and coupled the InVEST carbon model, PLUS scenario simulations, and GeoDetector analysis within a “pattern‐process‐projection” framework (PLUS accuracy: 94.31%). From 2000 to 2023, cropland expanded by 1.69 × 10 4 km 2 and construction land nearly doubled, whereas grassland and forestland decreased by 0.89 × 10 4 km 2 and 0.15 × 10 4 km 2 , respectively, accompanied by intermittent shrinkage of water bodies. CS across the basin increased slightly from 56.53 × 10 8 t to 56.83 × 10 8 t, indicating overall stability, but with clear spatial contrasts: gains occurred along oasis margins and riparian corridors, while losses emerged in transitional zones converted to cropland and construction land. GeoDetector identified fractional vegetation cover, soil erosion, and soil type as dominant drivers ( q > 0.25). Interactions related to fractional vegetation cover (FVC) strengthened after 2010, whereas GDP and population density exerted weaker effects. By 2030, the ecological protection scenario yielded the highest CS (57.10 × 10 8 t), the economic development scenario showed limited gains (+0.08 × 10 8 t), and the natural development scenario approach...