Global, regional and national burden of glaucoma from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2050: a retrospective cross-sectional study

作者：Yue Peng, Lian Han, Qi Jiang, Jiaying Liu, Xingyu Liu, G H Jiang, Zhaohuai Li, Shuyan Qin, Yehong Zhuo, Wenru Su · 发表于：BMJ Open · 年份：2026 · DOI：10.1136/bmjopen-2025-108975 · 被引用次数：8 · 研究领域：Glaucoma and retinal disorders、Ophthalmology and Visual Impairment Studies、Retinal Diseases and Treatments

OBJECTIVES: This study assessed the global burden of glaucoma using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study. The analysis of epidemiological trends aimed to inform future public health prevention strategies. DESIGN: Retrospective cross-sectional study. PARTICIPANTS: None. METHODS: Analysis of 1990-2021 GBD data on glaucoma prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), age-standardised prevalence rates (ASPR), and age-standardised DALY rates (ASDR). Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) were calculated, Joinpoint regression identified trend changes, and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modelling projected the burden for the year 2050. RESULTS: Globally, the number of prevalent glaucoma cases increased from 4 072 106.59 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 3 489 888.7 to 4 752 867.3) in 1990 to 7 587 672.9 (95% UI 6 522 906 to 8 917 725.4) in 2021. Concurrently, DALYs increased from 467 600.4 (95% UI 323 490.5 to 648 641.6) in 1990 to 759 900.2 (95% UI 530 942.9 to 1 049 127.2) in 2021. In contrast, the ASPR and ASDR declined to 90.1 per 100 000 population (95% UI 77.8 to 105.5) and 9.1 per 100 000 population (95% UI 6.3 to 12.5) in 2021, respectively. During the COVID-19 pandemic period (2019-2021), the slowest growth rates in crude case numbers and overall disease burden were observed, accompanied by the most pronounced decline in annual percentage change of ASPR. The highest estimates for both case counts and DALYs were identified in the ...