Tumor control probability modeling of pulmonary metastases in oligometastatic head and neck squamous cell carcinoma treated with stereotactic body radiation therapy

作者：Felix Ehret, Jimm Grimm, Gopal Subedi, Samuel Vorbach, Viola Salvestrini, Ilaria Bonaparte, Ahmed Allam Mohamed, Sonja Adebahr, Anne Richter, Alexander Fabian, Thomas Weissmann, Justus Kaufmann, Sophia Drabke, Esmée L. Looman, Maria Waltenberger, Kim Melanie Kraus, Maximilian Grohmann, Andrea Baehr, Susanne Rogers, Ahmed Gawish, Jan-Niklas Becker, Rainer J. Klement, Richard Partl, Michael J. Eble, Prof Anca-Ligia Grosu, Andreas Rimner, Eleni Gkika, Maike Trommer, Oliver Riesterer, Florian Putz, Ute Ganswindt, Christos Moustakis, Nils H. Nicolay, Thomas Brunner, Oliver Blanck, P Bonomo, Andrea Wittig-Sauerwein, Panagiotis Balermpas, Franziska Nägler, Alexander Rühle · 发表于：Radiotherapy and Oncology · 年份：2026 · DOI：10.1016/j.radonc.2026.111375 · 被引用次数：1 · 研究领域：Head and Neck Cancer Studies、Hepatocellular Carcinoma Treatment and Prognosis、Advanced Radiotherapy Techniques

Background and Purpose Local control rates for pulmonary metastases from head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) treated with stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) vary substantially in the literature, likely due to differences in the doses applied. This study, therefore, aims to develop tumor control probability (TCP) models. Methods Dose-time modeling of TCP was performed for three key dose descriptors: 3-fraction equivalent dose (3fxED) prescription dose, 3fxED planning target volume (PTV) D95%, and 3fxED PTV D2%. Each dose descriptor was stratified into 4 dose groups using a k-medians clustering algorithm, and the Kaplan-Meier estimator was computed in each group separately to enable time-dependent dose–response modeling. Logistic regression models were fitted using maximum likelihood estimation with model parameters determined separately for 1-year and 2-year local control. Results This retrospective multicenter analysis included 318 pulmonary metastases from 215 patients. The median 3fxED prescription dose was 45.0 Gy (IQR, 39.2–46.5), corresponding to a biologically effective dose (α/β = 20 Gy) (BED 20 ) of 78.8 Gy (IQR, 64.8–82.5). After a median radiographic follow-up of 13.3 months (IQR, 6.6–32.0), 21 local failures were observed. All models indicated a dose-dependent effect on the local control probability. A local control rate of 95 % was achieved at 1 and 2 years when 3fxED prescription doses and PTV D95% exceeded about 51 Gy (94 Gy BED 20 ), and when ...