Health-economic impacts of age-targeted and sex-targeted Lassa fever vaccination in endemic regions of Nigeria, Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone: a modelling study

作者：D. Randall Smith, Mary Chriselda Antony Oliver, Katherine M Holohan, Harry R Street, Andrew A Torkelson, Danny Asogun, Oladele Oluwafemi Ayodeji, Benedict Ndubueze Azuogu, Anton Camacho, William A. Fischer, Donald S. Grant, Kamji Jan, Sylvanus A Okogbenin, Jefferson Sibley, David A. Wohl, T Déirdre Hollingsworth, Koen B. Pouwels · 发表于：The Lancet Global Health · 年份：2026 · DOI：10.1016/s2214-109x(25)00450-4 · 被引用次数：2 · 研究领域：Viral Infections and Outbreaks Research、Vaccine Coverage and Hesitancy、COVID-19 Impact on Reproduction

BACKGROUND: Lassa fever is an emerging zoonotic disease endemic to west Africa. Several vaccines aimed at preventing Lassa fever are currently under development, creating a need to assess how best to administer them once licensed for human use. We aimed to project the health-economic burden of Lassa fever from 2025 to 2037 across age and sex groups in subnational administrative divisions of west Africa with endemic Lassa mammarenavirus transmission and to estimate the cost-effectiveness of targeting Lassa vaccination to different risk groups. METHODS: In this vaccine-impact modelling study, we developed a mathematical model using a zoonosis risk map and epidemiological data from recent and ongoing cohort studies to predict the health-economic burden of Lassa fever across age and sex groups in endemic regions. We simulated vaccination campaigns targeting different risk groups to estimate the cost-effectiveness of various strategies for Lassa vaccine administration. Threshold vaccine costs (TVCs), which represent the break-even price per dose of vaccine administered, were estimated in international dollars (INT$ 2023), accounting for health-care costs, productivity losses, and monetised disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted by vaccination. FINDINGS: Lassa fever was estimated to cause 6·23 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 4·21-8·42) hospitalisations, 0·75 (0·48-1·10) deaths and 31·1 (17·7-52·2) DALYs per 100 000 person-years. Vaccine strategies targeting adolescents-adult...