Influence of simulated vs. satellite-based burned areas on modelled terrestrial carbon fluxes

作者：Tiago Ermitão, Célia M. Gouveia, Ana Russo, Chantelle Burton, Evgenii Churiulin, Jefferson Goncalves De Souza, Michael O. Sullivan, Philippe Ciais, Sönke Zaehle, Stephen Sitch, Wei Li, Yidi Xu, Ana Bastos · 发表于：Carbon Balance and Management · 年份：2026 · DOI：10.1186/s13021-025-00366-5 · 研究领域：Fire effects on ecosystems、Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics、Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics

BACKGROUND: The Global Carbon Project provides annual updates on anthropogenic and natural components of the Global Carbon Budget. Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) contribute to these estimates and are used to simulate the evolution of terrestrial carbon sinks. However, DGVMs are known to poorly represent disturbances such as fire, leading to uncertainties in estimates of mean, interannual variability (IAV), and trends in land carbon fluxes. To address this issue, we propose a hybrid-process-based assessmentby constraining three DGVMs (OCN, JULES-INFERNO, and ORCHIDEE-MICT) with remotely-sensed burned areas from ESA CCI (FIRECCI51) and climate data from ERA5 reanalysis. We aim to improve the representation of the spatio-temporal variability of regional carbon budgets, namely fire emissions, above-ground biomass carbon (AGC), and vegetation-related variables—leaf area index (LAI) and gross primary productivity (GPP). RESULTS: Prescribing burned area (BA) in DGVMs reveals contrasting patterns between prognostic (model simulations) and diagnostic (simulations with prescribed BA) runs. As prognostic tends to overestimate BA, particularly across tropical and high-latitude regions, diagnostic simulations correct this issue, by reducing bias and improving the IAV and the agreement with satellite-based datasets of BA and fire emissions in these regions. Moreover, enhanced IAV of AGC is simulated by diagnostic runs, essentially due to better representation of biomass carbon in...