Analysis of Historical Climate Change and Variability in the Selected districts of Eastern Ethiopia

作者：A. N. Alisho, Y. Alemayehu, B. Teso, A. Mohammed, A. Ahmed, Feyera Merga · 发表于：Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) · 年份：2026 · DOI：10.5281/zenodo.18146009 · 研究领域：Geography、Climatology、Environmental science、Physical geography、Socioeconomics

Climate change and variability pose major challenges to agriculture and food security in Eastern Ethiopia, where rainfed farming dominates. This study assessed long-term rainfall and temperature trends across districts in East and West Hararghe Zones using daily data from 1992–2022 obtained from the National Meteorological Agency. Statistical methods, including Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope, were applied to detect trends, while precipitation concentration index, anomaly index, and coefficient of variability measured rainfall variability. Results indicated non-significant increasing rainfall trends in Haramaya, Tulo, Chiro, and Gurawa, while Mieso (-4.46 mm/year) and Babile (-3.40 mm/year) showed non-significant decreasing trends (P > 0.05). This study analyzed historical climate variability across districts in East and West Hararghe Zones, Oromia Region, Ethiopia. Kiremt rainfall exhibited increasing trends over past decades, though not statistically significant (P>0.05). Belg rainfall showed non-significant decreases in all districts except Chiro. Rainfall anomaly analysis revealed positive anomalies in Chiro, Tulo, Gurawa, and Haramaya, while negative anomalies were observed in Mieso and Babile districts. Rainfall patterns demonstrated high inter-annual variability, with delayed onset, early cessation, and frequent dry spells, directly impacting crop growth and yield. Spatial differences highlighted localized vulnerabilities, with lowland areas experiencing more frequent dro...