Machine learning models predict long COVID outcomes based on baseline clinical and immunologic factors

作者：Naresh Doni Jayavelu, Hady Samaha, Sonia Tandon Wimalasena, Annmarie Hoch, Jeremy P. Gygi, Gisela Gabernet, Al Ozonoff, Shanshan Liu, Carly E. Milliren, Ofer Levy, Lindsey Robert Baden, Esther C. Melamed, Lauren I. R. Ehrlich, Grace A. McComsey, R.P. Sékaly, Charles B. Cairns, Elias K. Haddad, Joanna M. D. Schaenman, Albert C. Shaw, David A. Hafler, Ruth R. Montgomery, David Brian Corry, Farrah Kheradmand, Mark A. Atkinson, Scott C. Brakenridge, Nelson Iván Agudelo Higuita, Jordan Patrick Metcalf, Catherine Lee Hough, William B. Messer, Bali Pulendran, Kari Christine Nadeau, Mark M. Davis, Linda N. Geng, Ana Fernández-Sesma, Viviana R. Simon, Florian Krammer, Monica Kraft, Chris Bime, Carolyn S. Calfee, David J. Erle, Charles Langelier, IMPACC Network, Patrice M. Becker, Alison Deckhut Augustine, Steven M. Holland, Lindsey B. Rosen, Serena J. Lee, Tatyana Vaysman, Jing Chen, Alvin T. Kho, Ana C. Chang, Kerry McEnaney, Brenda Barton, Claudia Lentucci, Maimouna D. Murphy, Mehmet Saluvan, Tanzia Shaheen, Caitlin Syphurs, Marisa S. Albert, Arash Nemati Hayati, Robert W. Bryant, James M. Abraham, Sanya Thomas, Mitchell Cooney, Meagan Karoly, Scott Presnell, Bernard Kohr, Tomasz Jancsyk, Azlann Arnett, James A. Overton, Randi Vita, Kerstin Westendorf, James A. Overton, Hanno Steen, Patrick van Zalm, Benoit Fatou, Kinga K. Smolen, Arthur Viodé, Simon D. van Haren, Meenakshi Jha, David K. Stevenson, Kevin M. Mendez, Jessica Ann Lasky-Su, Alexandra Tong, Rebecca Rooks, Michael C. Desjardins, Amy C Sherman, Stephen R. Walsh, Xhoi Mitre, Jessica Cauley, Xiofang Li, Bethany Evans, Christina Montesano, Jose Humberto Licona, Jonathan H Krauss, Nicolas C. Issa, Jun Bai Park Chang, Natalie Izaguirre, Scott R. Hutton, Greg Michelotti, Kari Wong, Scott J. Tebbutt, Casey P. Shannon, R.P. Sékaly, Slim Fourati, Paul Harris, Scott F. Sieg, George A. Yendewa, Mary C. Consolo, Heather Tribout, Susan Pereira Ribeiro, Michele A. Kutzler, Mariana Bernui, Gina M. Cusimano, Jennifer R Connors, Kyra Woloszczuk, David R. Joyner, Carolyn Edwards, Edward Wolfgang Lee, Edward H. Lin, Nataliya Melnyk, Debra L. Powell, James N. Kim, I. Michael Goonewardene, Brent Simmons, Cecilia M. Smith, Mark G. Martens, Brett J. Croen, Nicholas C. Semenza, Mathew R. Bell, Sara Furukawa, Renee McLin, George P. Tegos, Brandon C. Rogowski, Nathan J. Mege, Kristen Ulring, Pam Schearer, Judie Sheidy, Crystal Nagle, Vicki Seyfert-Margolis, Steven E. Bosinger, Arun Kumar Boddapati, Greg K. Tharp, Kathryn L. Pellegrini, Brandi E. Johnson, Bernadine Panganiban, Christopher Huerta, Erica Anderson, Jonathan Sevransky, Laurel Bristow, Elizabeth N. Beagle, David Cowan, Sydney Hamilton, Thomas Hodder, Amer Bechnak, Andrew C. K. Cheng, Aneesh K. Mehta, Caroline Rose Ciric, Christine Spainhour, Erin M. Carter, Erin M. Scherer, Jacob Usher, Kieffer Hellmeister, Laila Hussaini, Lauren T. Hewitt, Nina N. McNair, Susan Pereira Ribeiro, Fernandez-Sesma Ana, Harm van Bakel, Seunghee Kim-Schulze, Ana Silvia Gonzalez-Reiche, Jingjing Qi, Brian Lee, Juan Manuel Carreño, Gagandeep Singh, Ariel J. Raskin, Johnstone Tcheou, Zain Khalil, Adriana van de Guchte, Keith Farrugia, Zenab Khan, Geoffrey Kelly, Komal Srivastava, Lily Q. Eaker, Maria Carolina Bermúdez-González, Lubbertus C. F. Mulder, Katherine F. Beach, Miti S. Saksena, Deena R. Altman, Erna Milunka Kojic, Levy A. Sominsky, Arman R. Azad, Dominika A. Bielak, Hisaaki Kawabata, Temima Yellin, Miriam Fried, Leeba Sullivan, Sara Morris, Giulio Kleiner, Daniel Stadlbauer, Jayeeta Dutta, Hui Xie, Manishkumar Patel, Kai Nie, Adeeb H Rahman, Sarah A. R. Siegel, Peter E. Sullivan, Zhengchun Lu, Amanda E. Brunton, Matthew J. Strand, Zoë L. Lyski, Felicity J. Coulter, Courtney Micheleti, Holden T. Maecker, Yael Rosenberg‐Hasson, Michael D. Leipold, Natalia G. Sigal, Angela Rogers, ANDRÉA MARIA CASTELLO BRANCO FERNANDES, Monali Manohar, Evan Do, Iris Chang, Alexandra S. Lee, Catherine A. Blish, Henna Naz Din, Jonasel Roque, Linda N. Geng, Maja K Artandi, Neera K. Ahuja, Samuel Yang, SHARON CHINTHRAJAH, Thomas Hagan, Ramin Salehi‐Rad, Adreanne M. Rivera, Harry C. Pickering, Subha Sen, D. A Elashoff, Dawn C. Ward, Jenny K. Brook, Estefania Ramires‐Sanchez, Megan Llamas, Claudia Perdomo, Clara E. Magyar, Jennifer A. Fulcher, Carolyn M. Hendrickson, Kirsten Neudoerffer Kangelaris, Viet Thanh Nguyen, Deanna Lee, Suzanna Chak, Rajani Ghale, Ana Gonzalez, Alejandra E. Jauregui, Carolyn Leroux, Luz Torres Altamirano, Ahmad Sadeed Rashid, Andrew Willmore, Prescott G. Woodruff, Matthew F. Krummel, Sidney Carrillo, Alyssa Ward, Ravi Kumar Patel, Michael Wilson, Ravi Dandekar, Bonny D. Alvarenga, Jayant V. Rajan, Walter L. Eckalbar, Andrew W. Schroeder, Gabriela K. Fragiadakis, Alexandra Tsitsiklis, Eran Mick, Yanedth Sanchez Guerrero, Christina Love, Lenka Maliskova, Michael Adkisson, Aleksandra Leligdowicz, Alexander J. Beagle, Arjun Arkal Rao, Austin Sigman, Bushra Samad, Cindy Curiel, Cole Shaw, Gayelan Tietje-Ulrich, Jeff Milush, Jonathan Singer, Joshua Vasquez, Kevin Tang, Legna Betancourt, Lekshmi Santhosh, Logan Pierce, Maria Tecero Paz, Michael Matthay, Neeta Thakur, Nicklaus Rodriguez, Nicole Sutter, Norman G. Jones, Pratik Sinha, Priya A. Prasad, Raphael Lota, Sadeed Rashid, Saurabh Asthana, Sharvari Bhide, Tasha Lea, Yumiko Abe‐Jones, Dylan Duchen, Shrikant Pawar, Anna Konstorum, Ernie Chen, Chris J. Cotsapas, Xiaomei Wang, Leqi Xu, Charles S. Dela Cruz, Akiko Iwasaki, Subhasis Mohanty, Allison Nelson, Yujiao Zhao, Shelli Farhadian, Hiromitsu Asashima, Omkar Chaudhary, Andreas C. Coppi, John Byrne Fournier, M. Catherine Muenker, Khadir Raddassi, Michael Rainone, William E. Ruff, Syim Salahuddin, Wade L. Shulz, Pavithra Vijayakumar, Haowei Wang, Esio Wunder, H. Patrick Young, Albert Icksang Ko, Denise Esserman, Leying Guan, Anderson Fernandes Brito, Jessica E. Rothman, Nathan D. Grubaugh, Li-Zhen Song, Ebony Nelson, Nelson I. AgudeloHiguita, Lauren A. Sinko, J. Leland Booth, Douglas A. Drevets, Brent R. Brown, Jarrod M Mosier, Heidi E. Erickson, Ron Schunk, Hiroki Kimura, Michelle Conway, David Francisco, Allyson Molzahn, Connie Cathleen Wilson, Trina Hughes, Bianca Sierra, Ricardo F. Ungaro, Brittany Roth Manning, Lyle L. Moldawer, Jordan Oberhaus, Faheem W. Guirgis, Brittney Borresen, Matthew L. Anderson, Cole P. Maguire, Dennis Wylie, Justin F. Rousseau, Kerin C. Hurley, Janelle N. Geltman, Nadia Siles, Jacob E. Rogers, Pablo Guaman Tipan, Leying Guan, Holden T. Maecker, Bjoern Peters, Steven H. Kleinstein, Elaine F. Reed, Alison Deckhut Augustine, Joann Diray‐Arce, Patrice M. Becker, Nadine Rouphael, Matthew C. Altman · 发表于：Communications Medicine · 年份：2026 · DOI：10.1038/s43856-025-01230-w · 被引用次数：3 · 研究领域：Long-Term Effects of COVID-19、COVID-19 Clinical Research Studies、Immune responses and vaccinations

The post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 (PASC), also known as long COVID, remain a significant health issue that is incompletely understood. Predicting which acutely infected individuals will develop long COVID is challenging due to the absence of established biomarkers, clear disease mechanisms, or well-defined sub-phenotypes. Machine learning (ML) models may address this gap by leveraging clinical data to enhance diagnostic precision. Clinical data, including antibody titers and viral load measurements collected at the time of hospital admission, are used to predict the likelihood of acute COVID-19 progressing to long COVID. Machine learning models are trained and evaluated for predictive performance. Feature importance analysis is performed to identify the most influential predictors. The machine learning models achieve median AUROC values ranging from 0.64 to 0.66 and AUPRC values between 0.51 and 0.54, demonstrating predictive capabilities. Low antibody titers and high viral loads at hospital admission emerge as the strongest predictors of long COVID outcomes. Comorbidities—such as chronic respiratory, cardiac, and neurologic diseases—and female sex are also identified as significant risk factors. Machine learning models identify patients at risk for developing long COVID based on baseline clinical characteristics. These models guide early interventions, improve patient outcomes, and mitigate the long-term public health impacts of SARS-CoV-2. Long COVID, or post-acute sequ...