Coupling ecosystem service value and ecological vulnerability for spatial zoning and adaptive pathways under future scenarios: a case study of Northern Shaanxi, China

作者：Meng Wang, Jianmei Fu, Xin Huang, Yu Bai · 发表于：Frontiers in Environmental Science · 年份：2026 · DOI：10.3389/fenvs.2025.1686860 · 被引用次数：1 · 研究领域：Land Use and Ecosystem Services、Remote Sensing in Agriculture、Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management

Introduction The imbalance between ecosystem service supply and demand, combined with increasing ecological vulnerability, poses a significant challenge to the sustainable development of ecologically sensitive regions. Northern Shaanxi, a typical agro-pastoral zone in China with ecological fragility, is highly susceptible to severe soil erosion, desertification, and water scarcity. These stresses are intensified by intensive human activities and climate change. Therefore, it is necessary to systematically clarify the spatial differentiation of ecosystem service value (ESV) and vulnerability in this region, and to propose regionally tailored optimization and regulation strategies. Methods This study introduces a “classification–simulation–strategy alignment” analytical framework to examine the interaction between ESV and ecosystem vulnerability (EV). Using Northern Shaanxi as a case study, the spatiotemporal dynamics of ESV and EV are quantitatively analyzed from 2000 to 2020. According to the spatial coupling relationship between ESV and EV, the region is divided into four functional zones: Low ESV–Low EV (general utilization areas), High ESV–Low EV (ecological stability areas), Low ESV–High EV (key restoration areas), and High ESV–High EV (core protection areas). The PLUS model is applied to simulate various future development scenarios, assess the ecological responses across these zones, and propose targeted adaptive management strategies for Northern Shaanxi. Results The r...