Causal chain approaches to the evaluation of highway safety countermeasures

作者：William K. Hall, Joanne O’Day · 发表于：Journal of Safety Research · 年份：1971 · 被引用次数：9 · 研究领域：Risk and Safety Analysis、Occupational Health and Safety Research

THE PROCESS OF EVALUATION OF HIGHWAY SAFETY COUNTERMEASURES IS EXAMINED FROM TWO POINTS OF VIEW-EVALUATION AT THE PROJECT PLANNING STAGE IN WHICH COST-EFFECTIVENESS ANALYSIS IS APPROPRIATE AND EVALUATION AFTER IMPLEMENTATION USING THE TECHNIQUES OF EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS. THE USE OF A CASUAL CHAIN APPROACH TO EVALUATION OF HIGHWAY SAFETY COUNTERMEASURES IS RECOMMENDED. IN THIS APPROACH MEASUREMENTS OF THE DIRECT EFFECTS OF A COUNTERMEASURE ARE MADE, AND THESE ARE RELATED TO THE ULTIMATE (ACCIDENT) MEASURE BY ANALYZING THE CHAIN OF EVENTS WHICH FOLLOW. THREE EXAMPLES OF THIS TECHNIQUE ARE GIVEN - ONE INVOLVING A SPEED CONTROL PROGRAM PROMOTED BY A POLICE AGENCY, A SECOND INVOLVING A MOTOR VEHICLE INSPECTION PROGRAM, AND THE THIRD AN IMPROVED AMBULANCE SYSTEM. THE CAUSAL CHAIN APPROACH CAN YIELD RATHER IMMEDIATE AND USEFUL RESULTS. WHILE THESE MEASURES MAY NOT BE POLITICALLY AS SATISFYING AS DRAMATIC LIFE-SAVING CLAIMS, THEY HAVE THE VIRTUE OF BEING MORE REALISTIC INDICATORS OF THE SUCCESS OF A COUNTERMEASURE PROGRAM. /AUTHOR/