Regional variations in cardiovascular risk predictions: a comparative analysis of Framingham, SCORE2, and WHO models across 53 countries

作者：Yetong Liu, Wenming Bian, Sidong Li, Zhe Lv, Yizhen Lyu, Jiaheng Zhang, Kangyu Chen, Hui Yang, Tao Chen, Chao Li · 发表于：Journal of Global Health · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.7189/jogh.15.04323 · 被引用次数：2 · 研究领域：Lipoproteins and Cardiovascular Health、Health Promotion and Cardiovascular Prevention、Diabetes, Cardiovascular Risks, and Lipoproteins

Background: Risk prediction models for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) have been widely applied in clinical practice and in designing prevention policies globally, yet their accuracy across different regions with distinct epidemiological profiles remains uncertain. We examined the regional variation in risk distribution and agreement between these models. Methods: We analysed 53 nationally representative health surveys in seven regions. Using the World Health Organization (WHO), SCORE2, and Framingham CVD risk prediction models, we estimated the respondents' 10-year CVD risk and categorised them into low-, moderate-, or high-risk groups. Results: We included 86 430 individuals aged 40-69 years without a history of CVD in our analysis. Globally, CVD risk estimates differed substantially across models (WHO: 7.75%; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 7.70-7.80; SCORE2: 3.72%; 95% CI = 3.69-3.75; Framingham: 12.42%; 95% CI = 12.34-12.50). We also noted regional disparities in identifying moderate- and high-risk subjects, particularly in South Asia (WHO: 12.57%; 95% CI = 11.63-13.51; SCORE2: 18.24%; 95% CI = 17.14-19.33; Framingham: 29.40%; 95% CI = 28.11-30.70), sub-Saharan Africa (WHO: 16.30%; 95% CI = 15.78-16.83; SCORE2: 22.69%; 95% CI = 22.09-23.28; Framingham: 33.85%; 95% CI = 33.18-34.52), East Asia & the Pacific (WHO: 21.06%; 95% CI = 20.57, 21.55; SCORE2: 31.03%; 95% CI = 30.47, 31.59; Framingham: 45.54%; 95% CI = 44.93-46.14), and Latin America & the Caribbean (WHO: 23.09%; 95...