The trend analysis of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections among women of childbearing aged 15 to 49 years from 1990 to 2021 and its forecasting from 2022 to 2030

作者：Yingying Lin, Yilan Lin, Y C Chen, Ziwei Xie, Xinyu Zhou, Xuemin Xiao, Xiaohong Wang · 发表于：Frontiers in Public Health · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.3389/fpubh.2025.1702289 · 被引用次数：1 · 研究领域：Reproductive tract infections research、Adolescent Sexual and Reproductive Health、Syphilis Diagnosis and Treatment

Background: HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs) among women of childbearing age need in-depth research because of the physiological characteristics and their disadvantages in obtaining equal health rights. We intend to present the burden of disease worldwide from 1990 to 2021 using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study and forecast the DALYs from 2022 to 2030. Methods: Using the 2021 GBD study, we researched the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of HIV and other STIs in incidence, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates for women of childbearing age aged 15 to 49 years across different age groups, sociodemographic index (SDI) regions, and nations. We used statistical Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models to forecast. Results: In 2021, there were 670,804 new AIDS cases in women of childbearing age globally, with a decrease in age-standardized incidence rate (AAPC -1.94, -2.21 to -1.67) and an increase in age-standardized DALYs rate (AAPC 1.67, 1.20 to 2.14) from 1990 to 2021. There were 286,514,651 new other STIst cases with an increase in age-standardized incidence rate (AAPC 0.12, 0.09 to 0.14) and a decrease in age-standardized DALYs rate (AAPC -0.15, -0.18 to -0.11). The largest increase in age-standardized incidence rate of HIV occurred in Oceania from 1990 to 2021. The SDI trends were the opposite of age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized DALYs rate for HIV and other STIs among women of ...