The effectiveness of heat prevention plans in reducing heat-related mortality across Europe

作者：Aleš Urban, Veronika Huber, Salomé Henry, Nuria Pilar Plaza, Lucie Tušlová, Shouro Dasgupta, Pierre Masselot, Ivana Cvijanović, Malcolm Mistry, Mathilde Pascal, Francesca de’Donato, Claudia Di Napoli, Simon N. Gosling, Silvia Kohnová, Jan Kyselý, Samuel Lüthi, L. F. Pau, Martina S. Ragettli, Reija Ruuhela, Niilo Ryti, Susana das Neves Pereira da Silva, Shiri Zemah Shamir, Wim Thiery, Ana María Vicedo-Cabrera, Joanna Wieczorek, Francesco Sera, Ben Armstrong, Antonio Gasparrini, On behalf of the PROCLIAS TG 3.11 · 发表于：Environmental Research Letters · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1088/1748-9326/ae2775 · 被引用次数：3 · 研究领域：Climate Change and Health Impacts、Thermal Regulation in Medicine、Thermoregulation and physiological responses

Heat-health warning systems and action plans, referred to as heat prevention plans (HPPs), are key public health interventions aimed at reducing heat-related mortality. Despite their importance, prior assessments of their effectiveness have yielded inconsistent results. The objective of this study is to systematically assess the effectiveness of HPPs in reducing heat-related mortality risk across Europe. We analysed daily mortality and mean temperature data from 102 locations in 14 European countries between 1990 and 2019. Using data from national experts, we identified the year of HPP implementation and categorised their development class. A three-stage analysis was conducted: (1) quasi-Poisson time series models were used to estimate location-specific warm-season exposure-response functions in 3 year subperiods; (2) mixed-effect meta-regression models with multilevel longitudinal structures were employed to quantify changes in pooled exposure-response functions due to HPP implementation, adjusted for long-term trends in heat-related mortality risks; and (3) the heat-related excess mortality due to HPP was calculated by comparing factual (with HPP) and counterfactual (without HPP) scenarios. Estimates are reported by country, region, and HPP class. HPP implementation was associated with a 25.2% [95% CI: 19.8% to 31.9%] reduction in excess deaths attributable to extreme heat, corresponding to 1.8 [95% CI: 1.3-2.4] avoided deaths annually per 100 000 inhabitants. This equates ...