Response of grassland cover to climate and future trend prediction in Hexi region

作者：E Wang, Yi-yang JIA, Dongmei Zhou, Jing Jiang, Xin Huang, Xiaoyan Zhu, Jun Zhang, Qing-han DONG · 发表于：自然资源学报 · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.31497/zrzyxb.20260109 · 被引用次数：1 · 研究领域：Remote Sensing in Agriculture、Land Use and Ecosystem Services、Climate change impacts on agriculture

Located in inland Northwest China, the Hexi region has a typical arid and semi-arid climate and serves as a vital node in the Belt and Road Initiative. In recent years, global changes and human activities had impacted the sustainable development of both the regional ecosystem and the socio-economy. Grasslands play an important role in sustaining socio-economic development and ecological balance in arid and semi-arid zones, which are essential for providing critical ecosystem services such as water and soil conservation, windbreak and sand fixation, and biodiversity conservation. Grassland coverage serves as a key indicator of regional ecological health. Investigating the spatiotemporal patterns and response mechanisms of grassland coverage in the Hexi region holds significant importance for maintaining ecological balance and regulating regional climate. This study utilized MODIS NDVI time-series data and meteorological records from 2001 to 2022 to conduct multi-scale spatiotemporal analyses of grassland coverage dynamics and their climatic responses. An XGBoost model integrated with CMIP6 dataset was further employed to simulate grassland coverage trends from 2023 to 2050 under different scenarios in the Hexi region. The results showed that: (1) Grassland coverage in the study area showed an overall increasing trend with stable fluctuations. The spatial distribution of grassland coverage exhibited distinct spatial heterogeneity, presenting a pattern of "higher in the southeas...