ENSO amplifies global vegetation resilience variability in a changing climate

作者：Wei Zhou, Changjia Li, Haicheng Zhang, Lindsay C. Stringer, Jingyu Wang, Zhongci Deng, Zhen Wang · 发表于：Nature Communications · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1038/s41467-025-66987-z · 被引用次数：5 · 研究领域：Ecosystem dynamics and resilience、Remote Sensing in Agriculture、Climate variability and models

A thorough understanding of vegetation resilience to climate variability is critical for sustaining ecosystem functions and terrestrial carbon sinks. Although the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a key driver of global extreme weather events and vegetation dynamics, its impacts on vegetation resilience remain unclear. Here we estimate global present-day (1981-2018) and future (2015-2100) vegetation resilience using a lag-1 autocorrelation analysis of global leaf area index (LAI) time series and investigate its teleconnection to ENSO. Our findings reveal that ENSO significantly affects vegetation resilience across 53% of the global vegetated area. Within these regions, 15% are linked primarily to large-scale atmospheric synchrony with ENSO, 51% are mainly shaped by ENSO-driven local climate anomalies, and the remaining 34% are influenced by both processes. Future projections suggest that the area impacted via ENSO-driven climate anomalies may expand by 7-10%, with Eastern Siberia and northern North America newly affected. Our study provides a coherent global assessment of vegetation resilience sensitivity to ENSO, identifies teleconnected hotspots and potential influential pathways, and informs targeted restoration and climate-adaptive ecosystem governance under climate change.