The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global burden of mental disorders: a counterfactual modeling study from 1990 to 2021

作者：Mengsha Chen, Jiani Miao, Can Chen, Rongrong Qu, Wenkai Zhou, Jiaxing Qi, Kexin Cao, Xiaoyue Wu, Yinuo Wang, Yi Yang, Jingtong Zhou, Rui Yan, Ning Dong, Changtai Zhu, Shigui Yang · 发表于：Translational Psychiatry · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1038/s41398-025-03697-6 · 被引用次数：6 · 研究领域：COVID-19 and Mental Health、COVID-19 epidemiological studies、Mental Health Research Topics

The COVID-19 pandemic has intensified the global burden of mental disorders, yet the gap between observed and counterfactual burdens without the pandemic, especially for major depressive and anxiety disorders, remains unexplored. To assess this gap, including its impact on specific regions and populations, thereby guiding future mental health services and policy development. Data of age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rate (ASDR) for mental disorders from 1990 to 2021 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease dataset. This study employed a counterfactual model that combines Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average and Long Short-Term Memory to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global burden of mental disorders by quantifying the difference between actual and predicted rates. In 2021, mental disorders were more prevalent in higher Social Development Index (SDI) regions such as the North Americas, and European region. During the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2021), these regions, including countries like Denmark and the United States, saw significant increases in the ASPR, ASIR and ASDR of mental disorders, far exceeding predictions. Globally, the ASIR for men increased from a predicted 3917 to an observed 4435 per 100,000, while for women, it rose from a predicted 5497 to an observed 6382 per 100,000. Specific disorders like major depressive disorder and anxiety dis...