Global, regional, and national burden of brain and other central nervous system cancers from 1990 to 2021, and projections to 2035: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2021

作者：Guobin Yuan, Dan Miao, Baolei Xu, Ming Ren, W. X. Zou, Zhenyu Zhang, Shuqi Wang, Jiantao Wang, Bo-Yi Yuan, Wenqing Zhang, Chao Wu, Zhigang Ji, Chun Liu, Ying Li, Xiaoqing Li, Tingting Yang, Guangzhi Liu · 发表于：International Journal of Surgery · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1097/js9.0000000000003497 · 被引用次数：1 · 研究领域：Brain Metastases and Treatment、Glioma Diagnosis and Treatment、Meningioma and schwannoma management

BACKGROUND: The burden of primary brain and other central nervous system (CNS) cancers, collectively termed CNS cancers, has undergone significant changes in recent decades. This study aimed to estimate the burden, trends, and inequalities at the global, regional, and national levels from 1990 to 2021, as well as projections to 2035. METHODS: We used 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study data and methodologies to describe changes in the burden of CNS cancers from 1990 to 2021, including prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Furthermore, the autoregressive integrated moving average model was used to forecast the future CNS cancer burden until 2035. Finally, we conducted decomposition analysis to identify the key drivers of variation in CNS cancer burden. Frontier analysis was used to visually illustrate the potential for burden reduction in each country or region based on their development levels. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2021, global cases of CNS cancers have increased in prevalence and incidence by 124.50% and 106.53%, respectively, with corresponding increases in related age-standardized rates (ASRs). A similar increase in the number was also observed in CNS cancer-related mortality and DALYs, accompanied by a decline in the ASRs of DALYs and a stable state in the ASRs of mortality. Sex and age data from the GBD 2021 demonstrated an exclusively older male predominance in CNS cancer-related ASRs of prevalence, incidence, mortality, an...