Incidence and Mortality Risks of Gastrointestinal Cancers During Working‐Age Period: Trends and Disparities in 204 Countries and Territories (1990–2021)

作者：Yiming Song, Zhaolin Ji, X. Y. Zhang, Qian Liang, Zeyu Li, Xiaojie Huang, Jin-Nan Chen, Yujie Zhou, Xinyuan Wang, Li Zhao, Liuyi Yang, Yixin Qian, Xiaolu Lin, Qingwei Zhang, Xiaobo Li · 发表于：Med Research · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1002/mdr2.70045 · 研究领域：Colorectal Cancer Screening and Detection、Global Cancer Incidence and Screening、Esophageal Cancer Research and Treatment

ABSTRACT Gastrointestinal (GI) cancers constitute over one‐fourth of global cancer morbidity and one‐third of mortality. Although lifetime risk estimates guide cancer surveillance, the risk during working age (15–64 years) remains poorly quantified despite its significant socioeconomic implications. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate global incidence and mortality risks of GI cancers during working age (15–64 years) from 1990 to 2021. We employed the adjusted for multiple primaries method to estimate working‐age risks of six major GI cancers based on data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 study. Analyses of risk patterns were stratified by sex, sociodemographic index quintiles, geographic regions, nations, and age intervals. Temporal trends were assessed through joinpoint regression analyses spanning 1990–2021. Our analysis revealed that the 2021 global working‐age incidence and mortality risks of GI cancers were 2.19% (95% CI: 2.18–2.20) and 1.37% (95% CI: 1.36–1.37), respectively. Colorectal cancer exhibited the highest incidence risk (0.91%), whereas stomach cancer demonstrated the highest mortality risk (0.35%). Males demonstrated approximately twofold higher risks than females. High‐middle SDI countries exhibited the highest risks, with East Asia and Mongolia showing the highest regional and national risks. Age‐stratified analysis revealed ages 40–64 representing the high‐risk period during working years. Despite an encouraging decline in overall GI cancer risks, the p...