Integrative Sustainable Development Goal policy portfolios to accelerate global progress towards a more sustainable future: a modelling study

作者：Jing Yang, Lei Gao, Zhaoxia Guo, Yucheng Dong, Enayat A. Moallemi, Sibel Eker, Qi Liu, Zengxiao Chi, Fengming Liu, Michael Obersteiner, Brett A. Bryan · 发表于：The Lancet Planetary Health · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101318 · 被引用次数：6 · 研究领域：Sustainable Development and Environmental Policy、Sustainability and Climate Change Governance、Sustainability in Higher Education

BACKGROUND: Progress towards the UN's 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is far off track. An effective and comprehensive assessment of policy impacts on the SDGs is crucial for accelerating global progress towards their achievement. We aimed to provide a comprehensive assessment of progress towards ten SDGs under future deep uncertainties and identify the most effective policy portfolios that best achieve these SDGs simultaneously. METHODS: In this study, we used an integrative modelling approach to capture important aspects of the complex behaviours of the global environmental and socioeconomic system. The study was conducted based on the functional enviro-economic linkages integrated nexus model, which is a system dynamics model that simulates interdependencies among global social, economic, and environmental components across 12 sectoral modules, including population, education, economy, poverty, energy, land use, water, food and diet change, fertiliser use, climate, carbon cycle, and biodiversity. The model was constructed with historical data from 1950 to 2021, sourced primarily from official international organisations such as the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN, the International Energy Agency, the World Bank, the UN Development Programme, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We used 32 SDG assessment indicators to quantify the impacts of 6480 policy portfolios from seven policy clusters interactively on ten SDGs up until 2050. We then u...