Cause specific mortality risks associated with tropical cyclones in multiple countries and territories: two stage, time series study

作者：Wenzhong Huang, Rongbin Xu, Zhengyu Yang, Christian Otto, Simon Hales, Samuel Hundessa, Tingting Ye, Paul Lester Chua, Elizabeth A. Ritchie, Micheline S Z S Coelho, Pei Yu, Kraichat Tantrakarnapa, Paulo Hilário Nascimento Saldiva, Yiwen Zhang, Zhihu Xu, Shuang Zhou, Éric Lavigne, Xerxes Seposo, Wissanupong Kliengchuay, Yue Leon Guo, Yue Leon Guo, Ho Kim, Wenhua Yu, Yanming Liu, Ke Ju, Yao Wu, Bo Wen, Shanshan Li, Yuming Guo, Yuming Guo · 发表于：BMJ · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1136/bmj-2025-084906 · 被引用次数：4 · 研究领域：Climate Change and Health Impacts、Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research、Climate Change, Adaptation, Migration

OBJECTIVE: To characterise and quantify the mortality risks for a range of causes after tropical cyclones in nine countries and territories. DESIGN: Two stage, time series study. SETTING: Nine countries or territories (Australia, Brazil, Canada, South Korea, Mexico, New Zealand, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Thailand), covering tropical, subtropical, and extra-tropical regions. PARTICIPANTS: General populations living in regions with tropical cyclones in the nine countries or territories, 2000-19. MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURES: Excess mortality risk of cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases, infectious diseases, injuries, neuropsychiatric disorders, renal diseases, digestive diseases, diabetes, and neoplasms as the leading cause of death. Wind speed and rainfall profiles were quantified with a physics based tropical cyclone field model. RESULTS: 14.8 million deaths and 217 tropical cyclone events in communities from the nine countries or territories were included in the analysis. Mortality risks from various causes consistently increased after tropical cyclones, with peaks occurring within the first two weeks after the cyclone, followed by a rapid decline. During the first two weeks after a tropical cyclone, the highest increases were seen in mortality from renal diseases and injuries, with a cumulative relative risk of 1.92 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.63 to 2.26) and 1.21 (1.12 to 1.30), respectively, for each additional tropical cyclone day. Relatively more modest risks ...