Extreme rainfall south of the Yangtze River in China during June 2024: Observational diagnosis and dynamical downscaling prediction

作者：Zhao Chongbo, Lili Dong, Bing Xie, Wenzhong Shi, Anran Wang, Jie Wu, Qingquan Li · 发表于：Atmospheric Research · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108616 · 被引用次数：1 · 研究领域：Climate variability and models、Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes、Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research

Extreme precipitation events are highly destructive, but their accurate prediction poses a significant challenge because the physical mechanisms underlying each event are uniquely complex. In June 2024, extreme heavy rainfall struck regions south of the Yangtze River (SYR) in China, marking the highest precipitation anomaly of the corresponding period near Dongting Lake since 1961. This led to the year's first flood of Dongting Lake and a levee breach in Huarong County, causing substantial damage to agricultural fields, infrastructure facilities, and residential areas. Regarding external sea surface temperature (SST) forcing, the elevated SSTs in the tropical North Atlantic and Indian Ocean combined with cold SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific contributed to this extreme rainfall, with the Indian Ocean playing a dominant role. In terms of internal atmospheric variability, the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) subsequently triggered subseasonal precipitation anomalies and further intensified precipitation during late June 2024. A global climate model (BCC_CPSv3) initialized in May produced a northward deviation in the heavy rainfall belt in June 2024. Through dynamical downscaling, the regional climate model (CWRF) improved the spatial distribution of the precipitation prediction. This improvement was primarily attributed to the more realistic representation of warmer SSTs in the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea, and their relationships with precipitatio...