Spatiotemporal variation of growth–stage specific concurrent climate extremes and their impacts on rice yield in southern China

作者：Ran Sun, Tao Ye, Yiqing Liu, Weihang Liu, Shuo Chen · 发表于：Earth System Dynamics · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.5194/esd-16-1971-2025 · 研究领域：Climate change impacts on agriculture、Rice Cultivation and Yield Improvement、Remote Sensing in Agriculture

Abstract. Increasing evidence highlights the disruptive effects of compound climate extremes on global crop yields under climate change. Existing studies predominantly rely on the whole growing–season scale and relative thresholds, and limit the ability to capture crop physiological sensitivities and yield responses that vary critically across growth stages. Here, we analyzed the spatiotemporal variations, dominant drivers, and potential impacts on the yields of concurrent heat–drought and chilling–rain events for single– and late–rice in southern China from 1981 to 2018. Specifically, we carefully distinguished three sensitive growth stages of rice and stage–specific climate stress types and thresholds based on rice physiology. Temporally, single–rice experienced a significant increase in concurrent heat–drought events, while late–rice experienced a modest rise in chilling–rain events. Spatially, the hotspots of concurrent heat–drought events varied greatly across the three growth stages. These spatial patterns are driven primarily by differences in crop phenology across locations, rather than by the occurrence of extreme climate conditions. The concurrent chilling–rain events of late–rice were widespread within the planting regions, with a higher incidence in certain areas. Path analysis identified heat stress as the primary driver of heat–drought impacts (particularly in jointing–booting and heading–flowering stages), whereas chilling and rain stress exerted comparable eff...