Decarbonizing China's grid: provincial grid carbon footprint factors and export-embedded electricity emissions from 2020 to 2060

作者：Yunlong Wu, Zhe Zhang, Shuying Zhu, Xiaohui Song, Lizhe Ning, Peixiu Chen, Hongkuan Zang, Weikai Ren, Muchuan Niu, Bofeng Cai, Li Zhang · 发表于：Carbon Footprints · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.20517/cf.2025.61 · 被引用次数：4 · 研究领域：Environmental Impact and Sustainability、Integrated Energy Systems Optimization、Water-Energy-Food Nexus Studies

Quantifying the dynamic evolution of grid carbon footprint factors (GCFFs) is crucial for evaluating electricity-related emissions and advancing China’s dual-carbon goals. This study develops a dynamic model for 30 provinces covering 2020-2060 under three renewable energy development scenarios. Results reveal substantial spatial heterogeneity: between 2020 and 2022, hydropower-rich provinces such as Sichuan and Yunnan maintained GCFF values more than 70% below the national average, whereas coal-dependent regions including Shanxi and Inner Mongolia remained over 40% higher. Under the “Ambitious renewable energy development” scenario (S2), the national average GCFF in 2060 declines by 4.53% relative to the “Business as usual” scenario (representing a 6.22% decrease relative to the “Conservative renewable energy development” (S1) scenario), with reductions exceeding 80% in Jilin and Hainan. Export-sector analysis shows that aluminum-related electricity emissions are highly sensitive to power decarbonization (62% reduction in Shandong under the S2 scenario), while cement emissions are primarily demand-driven. This study establishes the first long-term coupling framework of provincial GCFFs with export-sector emissions, incorporating both non-fossil electricity and upstream extraction. The findings provide a high-resolution evidence base for subnational carbon accounting and targeted low-carbon transition strategies.