Synergies and trade-offs between maintaining climate niche variability and preserving climate stability

作者：Marta Cimatti, Thiago Cavalcante, Heini Kujala, Sara Si‐Moussi, Wilfried Thuiller, Piero Visconti, Moreno Di Marco · 发表于：bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1101/2025.10.26.684389 · 被引用次数：1 · 研究领域：Species Distribution and Climate Change、Environmental DNA in Biodiversity Studies、Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies

Abstract The impact of climate change on biodiversity accelerates, calling for climate resilient conservation strategies such as protecting areas of high climatic stability (i.e. climate refugia) or protecting the variability of species climatic niches (to preserve adaptive potential). Developing a spatial framework that integrates both strategies, we identify priorities to protect climatic niche components of 1,207 European vertebrates. Priority areas for protecting climatic niches under low climate velocity or low magnitude were respectively found in mountainous/southern regions and in northern/eastern Europe. These synergy areas overlapped by 48–73% with single-objective prioritizations focused on either niche components or climatic stability. Trade-offs occur where climatic niches diversity is high but climate stability is low, such as eastern Europe (velocity) or the Mediterranean and North Fennoscandia (magnitude). Our results reveal spatial mismatches between climate refugia and spatial priorities to preserve adaptive potential, emphasizing the need to combine both strategies in conservation planning.