Trends and health inequalities of hepatitis virus-associated liver cancer mortality during 1990–2050

作者：Yujiao Deng, Jingyue Tan, Jian Zu, Zixuan Xing, Zhanpeng Yang, Yue Zhang, Yajing Bo, Xu Gao, Enrui Xie, Yuan Wang, Meijuan Han, Fanpu Ji, Yang Yang · 发表于：Annals of Hepatology · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1016/j.aohep.2025.102144 · 被引用次数：4 · 研究领域：Hepatitis C virus research、Hepatitis B Virus Studies、Liver Disease Diagnosis and Treatment

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: Liver cancer (LC) is a leading cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide. Hepatitis B/C virus -associated LC (HBC/HCC) remains the primary cause of liver cancer, and it imposes a heavy burden on public health. This study aimed to estimate the mortality and health inequalities of hepatitis B/C virus (HBV/HCV)-associated LC at the global, regional and national levels to provide guidance to reduce the mortality burden of LC. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We extracted the HBV/HCV-associated LC mortality data from the GBD 2021 study during 1990-2021 and analyzed its temporal and spatial trends and forecasted to 2050. Average annual percent change (AAPC) was calculated by joinpoint regression to evaluate the variation of ASMRs, and factors impacting mortality were evaluated through decomposition analysis. The Bayesian spatiotemporal model was used to fit the relationship between age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of 204 countries/territories and spatial effects, temporal effects, and spatio-temporal interaction effects. Frontier analysis was conducted to evaluate the minimum achievable ASMR in each country or territory by 2050 and its potential space for ASMR improvement in 2050. RESULTS: Globally, LC deaths doubled from 238,969 in 1990 to 483,875 in 2021. Compared with 1990, the proportions of HBV and HCV in the mortality rate of LC in 2021 were 37.45 % and 30.28 %, corresponding to a decrease of 7.13 % and an increase of 3.44 %, respectively. From 1990 to...