Modelling practices, data provisioning, sharing and dissemination needs for pandemic decision-making: a European survey-based modellers’ perspective, 2020 to 2022

作者：Esther van Kleef, Wim Van Bortel, Elena Arsevska, Luca Busani, Simon Dellicour, Laura Di Domenico, Marius Gilbert, Sabine van Elsland, Moritz U. G. Kraemer, Shengjie Lai, Philippe Lemey, Stefano Merler, Zoran Milosavljević, Annapaola Rizzoli, Danijela Simić, Andrew J. Tatem, Maguelonne Teisseire, William Wint, Vittoria Colizza, Chiara Poletto · 发表于：Eurosurveillance · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.2807/1560-7917.es.2025.30.42.2500216 · 被引用次数：2 · 研究领域：COVID-19 epidemiological studies、Data-Driven Disease Surveillance、Influenza Virus Research Studies

BACKGROUNDAdvanced outbreak analytics were instrumental in informing governmental decision-making during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, systematic evaluations of how modelling practices, data use and science-policy interactions evolved during this and previous emergencies remain scarce.AIMThis study assessed the evolution of modelling practices, data usage, gaps, and engagement between modellers and decision-makers to inform future global epidemic intelligence.METHODSWe conducted a two-stage semiquantitative survey among modellers in a large European epidemic intelligence consortium. Responses were analysed descriptively across early, mid- and late-pandemic phases. We used policy citations in Overton to assess policy impact.RESULTSOur sample included 66 modelling contributions from 11 institutions in four European countries. COVID-19 modelling initially prioritised understanding epidemic dynamics; evaluating non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination impacts later became equally important. Traditional surveillance data (e.g. case line lists) were widely available in near-real time. Conversely, real-time non-traditional data (notably social contact and behavioural surveys) and serological data were frequently reported as lacking. Gaps included poor stratification and incomplete geographical coverage. Frequent bidirectional engagement with decision-makers shaped modelling scope and recommendations. However, fewer than half of the studies shared open-access code.CONCLUSIO...