Spatio-Temporal Variations in Soil Organic Carbon Stocks in Different Erosion Zones of Cultivated Land in Northeast China Under Future Climate Change Conditions

作者：Shuai Wang, Xinyu Zhang, Qianlai Zhuang, Zijiao Yang, Zicheng Wang, Li‐Hui Chen, Xinxin Jin · 发表于：Agronomy · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.3390/agronomy15112459 · 被引用次数：5 · 研究领域：Forest, Soil, and Plant Ecology in China

Soil organic carbon (SOC) plays a critical role in the global carbon cycle and serves as a sensitive indicator of climate change impacts, with its dynamics significantly influencing regional ecological security and sustainable development. This study focuses on the Songnen Plain in Northeast China—a key black soil agricultural region increasingly affected by water erosion, primarily through surface runoff and rill formation on gently sloping cultivated land. We aim to investigate the spatiotemporal dynamics of SOC stocks across different cultivated land erosion zones under projected future climate change scenarios. To quantify current and future SOC stocks, we applied a boosted regression tree (BRT) model based on 130 topsoil samples (0–30 cm) and eight environmental variables representing topographic and climatic conditions. The model demonstrated strong predictive performance through 10-fold cross-validation, yielding high R2 and Lin’s concordance correlation coefficient (LCCC) values, as well as low mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE). Key drivers of SOC stock spatial variation were identified as mean annual temperature, elevation, and slope aspect. Using a space-for-time substitution approach, we projected SOC stocks under the SSP245 and SSP585 climate scenarios for the 2050s and 2090s. Results indicate a decline of 177.66 Tg C (SSP245) and 186.44 Tg C (SSP585) by the 2050s relative to 2023 levels. By the 2090s, SOC losses under SSP245 and SSP585 a...