Research on Safety Evaluation Methods for Interchange Diverting Zones Based on Operating Speed

作者：Haochen Bai, Shengyu Xi, Chi Zhang, Bo Wang, Zhuxuan Cai, Lin Yi, Tingyu Guo · 发表于：Sustainability · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.3390/su17209194 · 被引用次数：1 · 研究领域：Evaluation and Optimization Models、Traffic Prediction and Management Techniques、Traffic control and management

In response to the growing safety challenges posed by large-scale and specialized freight transportation on China’s rapidly expanding highway network, this study investigates the operational characteristics of trucks in interchange diverging areas—a critical segment with elevated accident risks. Leveraging high-frequency trajectory data collected from 16 interchanges, we analyze speed profiles and acceleration behavior of heavy trucks across key sections: the diversion influence zone, preparation zone, transition segment, and deceleration lane. A key contribution of this work is the development of a continuous speed prediction model based on Partial Least Squares Regression, which integrates road geometric parameters and driving behavior features to estimate speeds at four critical cross-sections of the diverging process. Furthermore, we propose a comprehensive safety evaluation framework incorporating three novel indicators: longitudinal speed consistency, lateral stability, and deceleration comfort. The model demonstrates strong performance, with all mean absolute percentage errors below 10% during validation using data from four independent interchanges. Comparative analysis with existing safety standards confirms the practical applicability and accuracy of the proposed methodology. This research offers three major contributions: (1) a systematic approach for processing large-scale trajectory data and predicting truck speeds in diverging areas; (2) a safety assessment fram...