Global burden of 292 causes of death in 204 countries and territories and 660 subnational locations, 1990–2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023

作者：Masayuki Teramoto, Hmwe Hmwe Kyu, A Bhoomadevi, Mohammad Amin Aalipour, Hasan Aalruz, Hazim Ababneh, Bedru Jemal Abafita, Ukachukwu Okoroafor Abaraogu, Cristiana Abbafati, Madineh Abbasi, Faezeh Abbaspour, Hedayat Abbastabar, Abdallah H A Abd Al Magied, Samar Abd ElHafeez, Ashraf N. Abdalla, Mohammed Abdalla, Emad M. Abdallah, Barkhad Aden Abdeeq, Nadin M I Abdel Razeq, Ahmed A. Abdelgalil, Reda Abdel‐Hameed, Michael Abdelmasseh, Mahmoud Abdelnabi, Wael M. Abdel‐Rahman, Arman Abdous, Mostafa M. Abdrabou, Jeza Muhamad Abdul Aziz, Deldar Morad Abdulah, Auwal Abdullahi, Toufik Abdul‐Rahman, Habtamu Abebe, Aidin Abedi, Armita Abedi, Parisa Abedi, Asrat Agalu Abejew, Roberto Ariel Abeldaño Zúñiga, Shehab Uddin Al Abid, Syed Hani Abidi, Alemwork Abie, Olugbenga Olusola Abiodun, Richard Gyan Aboagye, Shady Abohashem, Hassan Abolhassani, Ulric Sena Abonie, Nagah M Abourashed, Mohamed Abouzid, Dmitry Abramov, Lucas Guimarães Abreu, Dariush Abtahi, Rana Abu Farha, Fuad H. Abuadas, Aminu Kende Abubakar, Nermeen M. Abu‐Elala, Eman Abu-Gharbieh, Sawsan Abuhammad, Ahmad Y. Abuhelwa, Hana J Abukhadijah, Niveen ME Abu-Rmeileh, Salahdein Aburuz, Dina Abushanab, Manfred Accrombessi, Anirudh B. Acharya, Apurba Acharya, Ousman Adal, Lisa C. Adams, Abdu A. Adamu, Isaac Yeboah Addo, Oluwafemi Adeagbo, Tajudeen Adewumi Adebisi, Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji, Kamoru A. Adedokun, Oluwatobi E Adegbile, Nurudeen A. Adegoke, Olumide Thomas Adeleke, Bulcha Guye Adema, Bashir Aden, Isaac Ayodeji Adesina, Miracle Ayomikun Adesina, Juliana Bunmi Adetunji, Habeeb Omoponle Adewuyi, Temitayo Esther Adeyeoluwa, Mache Tsadik, Ripon Kumar Adhikary, Usha Adiga, Tanin Adl Parvar, Mohammad Adnan, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani, Prince Owusu Adoma, Leticia Akua Adzigbli, David Adzrago, Giuseppina Affinito, Ahmed Afifi, Clifford Afoakwah, Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika Afolabi, Rotimi Felix Afolabi, Vlad-Adrian Afrăsânie, Saira Afzal, Gizachew Beykaso Agafari, Suneth Agampodi, Thilini Chanchala Agampodi, Navidha Aggarwal, Mahdi Aghaalikhani, Sepehr Aghajanian, Seyed Mohammad Kazem Aghamir, Feleke Doyore Agide, César Agostinis Sobrinho, Anurag Agrawal, Williams Agyemang‐Duah, Mahsa Ahadi, Bright Opoku Ahinkorah, Aqeel Ahmad, Danish Ahmad, Faisal Ahmad, Ijaz Ahmad, Khabir Ahmad, Khurshid Ahmad, Sajjad Ahmad, Tauseef Ahmad, Waqas Ahmad, Negar Sadat Ahmadi, Ali Ahmed, Ayman Ahmed, Gasha Salih Ahmed, Haroon Ahmed, Junaid Ahmed, Luai A. Ahmed, Md. Samzir Ahmed, Mehrunnisha Sharif Ahmed, Meqdad Saleh Ahmed, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Mushood Ahmed, Shabbir Ahmed, Sindew Mahmud Ahmed, Syed Anees Ahmed, Gulzhanat Aimagambetova, Marjan Ajami, Budi Aji, Hossein Akbarialiabad, Saeid Akbarifard, Oluwasefunmi Akeju, Roland Eghoghosoa Akhigbe, Ruslan Akhmedullin, O. A. Akinkuotu, Mohammed Ahmed Akkaif, Wọlé Akóṣílè, Ashley E Akrami, Ralph Kwame Akyea, Alaa Al Amiry, Salah Al Awaidy, Syed Mahfuz Al Hasan, Ammar Al Homsi, Mohammad Khaled Al Nawayseh, Omar Al Omari, Zain Al Ta’ani, Yazan Al Thaher, Omar Ali Mohammed Al Zaabi, Mohammad Ahmmad Mahmoud Al Zoubi, Mousa A. Al‐Abbadi, Tariq A. Alalwan, Ziyad Al‐Aly, Khurshid Alam, Manjurul Alam, Mohammad Khursheed Alam, Mostafa Alam, Rasmieh Al‐Amer, Abebaw Alamrew, Amani N. Alansari, Turki M Alanzi, Fahmi Y. Al-Ashwal, Mohammed ALBashtawy, Wafa Ali Aldhaleei, Mohammed S. Aldossary, Robert W Aldridge, Shereen M. Aleidi, Bezawit Abeje Alemayehu, Fentahun Alemnew, Melaku Birhanu Alemu, Kefyalew Addis Alene, Ayman Al‐Eyadhy, Ali M Alfalki, Fahad D. Algahtani, Abdelazeem M. Algammal, Khairat Al-Habbal, Nma Bida Alhaji, Samar Al‐Hajj, Fadwa Alhalaiqa, Mohammed Khaled Al‐Hanawi, Khalid Alhasan, Ashraf Alhumaidi, Fahad A. Alhumaydhi, Amjad Ali, Haroon Muhammad Ali, Irfan Ali, Liaqat Ali, Maratab Ali, Mohammad Daud Ali, Mohammed Usman Ali, Rafat Ali, Shahid Ali, Syed Shujait Ali, Waad Ali, Gianfranco Alicandro, Montaha Al‐Iede, Sheikh Mohammad Alif, Hamid Alinejad‐Rokny, M J Gol Alipour, Samah W. Al‐Jabi, Mohamad Aljofan, Moath Aljohani, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Ahmad Alkhatib, Mustafa Alkhawam, Peter Allebeck, Khaled S. Allemailem, Mohammed Z. Allouh, Wesam Taher Almagharbeh, Sabah Al-Marwani, Nihad A. Almasri, Joseph Uy Almazan, Hesham M. Al‐Mekhlafi, Omar Almidani, Amr Almobayed, Khaldoon Aied Alnawafleh, Hasan Y. Alniss, Margret Beaula Alocious Sukumar, Mahmoud A. Alomari, Mohammad R. Alosta, Jaber S. Alqahtani, Saleh A. Alqahtani, Mohammad R Alqudimat, Ahmad R. Al‐Qudimat, Intima Alrimawi, Sahel Majed Alrousan, Salman Khalifah Al-Sabah, Mohammed Alsabri, Zaid Altaany, Awais Altaf, Ala’a B. Al‐Tammemi, Jaffar A. Al‐Tawfiq, Malik A Althobiani, Khalid A Altirkawi, Javier Álvarez‐Gálvez, Nelson Alvis‐Guzmán, Nelson J Alvis-Zakzuk, Hassan Alwafi, Mohammad Al‐Wardat, Yaser Mohammed Al‐Worafi, Hany Aly, Mohammad S. Alyahya, Hosam Alzahrani, Karem H. Alzoubi, Adel Sharaf Al-Zubairi, Ekiyor Joseph Amafah, Joy Amafah, Reza Amani‐Beni, Faten Amer, Bardia Amidi, Amr Amin, Tarek Tawfik Amin, Alireza Amindarolzarbi, Saeed Amini, Ehsan Amini‐Salehi, Majid Aminzare, Sohrab Amiri, Joanne O Amlag, Dickson A Amugsi, Ganiyu Adeniyi Amusa, Filippos Anagnostakis, Roshan A. Ananda, Nazanin Anaraki, Robert Ancuceanu, Deanna Anderlini, David Anderson, Nguyen Hoang Anh, AbdulAzeez Adeyemi Anjorin, Samuel Egyakwa Ankomah, Kabilan Annadurai, Sumbul Ansari, Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam, Catherine M Antony, Ernoiz Antriyandarti, Boluwatife Stephen Anuoluwa, Iyadunni Adesola Anuoluwa, Saeid Anvari, Saleha Anwar, Sumadi Lukman Anwar, Razique Anwer, Shahnawaz Anwer, Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor, Francis Appiah, Juan Pablo Arab, Hossein Arabi, Jalal Arabloo, Mosab Arafat, Daniel T Araki, Aleksandr Y. Aravkin, Demelash Areda, Getnet Mesfin Aregu, Jorge Arias de la Torre, Ghazal Arjmand, Benedetta Armocida, Johan Ärnlöv, Jesu Arockiaraj, Mahwish Arooj, Anton A Artamonov, Ashokan Arumugam, Deepavalli Arumuganainar, Umesh Raj Aryal, Nurila Aryntayeva, Mahsa Asadi Anar, Muhammad Asaduzzaman, Syed Mohammed Basheeruddin Asdaq, Mulusew Andualem Asemahagn, Mulu Tiruneh, Saeed Asgary, Mohammad Asghari Jafarabadi, Syed Amir Ashraf, Tahira Ashraf, Mitra Ashrafi, Milad Ashrafizadeh, Bernard Yeboah‐Asiamah Asare, Saeed Aslani, Yuni Asri, Batyrbek Assembekov, Seyyed Shamsadin Athari, Alok Atreya, J. Atta, Zeenah Atwan, Khursheed Aurangzeb, Marcel Ausloos, Abolfazl Avan, Núbia Carelli Pereira de Avelar, Sana Javaid Awan, Adedapo Wasiu Awotidebe, Lemessa Assefa A Ayana, Haleh Ayatollahi, Yusuf Oloruntoyin Ayipo, Seyed Mohammad Ayyoubzadeh, Sina Azadnajafabad, Arian Azadnia, James M. Azam, Alireza Azarboo, Zelalem Nigussie Azene, Gulrez Shah Azhar, Amirali Azimi, Farya Azimi, Mohd Yusmaidie Aziz, Sadat Abdulla Aziz, Amin Azizan, Ahmed Y. Azzam, Giridhara R. Babu, Youngoh Bae, Arvind Bagga, Nasser Bagheri, Sara Bagheri, Elahe Baghizadeh, Fereshteh Baghizadeh, Sana Baghizadeh, Khlood Baghlaf, Najmeh Bahmanziari, Ruhai Bai, Mohamed Baklola, Abdulaziz Bako, Wondu Feyisa Balcha, Maher Balkis, José Roberto Balmori de la Miyar, Mohammadreza Balooch Hasankhani, Ovidiu Constantin Baltatu, Soham Bandyopadhyay, Palash Chandra Banik, Noël C. Barengo, Suzanne Barker‐Collo, Hiba Jawdat Barqawi, Amadou Barrow, Sandra Barteit, Lingkan Barua, MD Abu Bashar, Shahid Bashir, Guido Basile, Rehana Basri, Quique Bassat, Mohammad‐Mahdi Bastan, Abdul‐Monim Batiha, Kavita Batra, Matteo Bauckneht, Mahdis Bayat, Mohammad Amin Bayat Tork, Thomas Beaney, Neeraj Bedi, Narasimha M. Beeraka, Massimiliano Beghi, Jina Behjati, Bezawit Kassahun Bekele, Almaz Nibret Belay, Demeke Mesfin Belay, Asnake Gashaw Belayneh, Melesse Belayneh, Abel Cherkos Belete, Gokce Belge Bilgin, Muhammad Bashir Bello, Olorunjuwon Omolaja Bello, Umar Muhammad Bello, Luı́s Belo, Apostolos Beloukas, Riyad Bendardaf, Isabela M. Benseñor, Samiun Nazrin Bente Kamal Tune, Maria Bergami, Alemshet Yirga Berhie, Abiye Assefa Berihun, Amiel Nazer C Bermudez, Robert S. Bernstein, Gregory J Bertolacci, Paola Bertuccio, Paulo J. G. Bettencourt, Ajeet Singh Bhadoria, Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula, Neeraj Bhala, Buna Bhandari, Kayleigh Bhangdia, Charmi Bhanushali, Nikha Bhardwaj, Pankaj Bhardwaj, Ashish Bhargava, Sonu Bhaskar, Anup Bhat, Priyadarshini Bhattacharjee, Shuvarthi Bhattacharjee, Gurjit Kaur Bhatti, Jasvinder Singh Bhatti, Mohiuddin Ahmed Bhuiyan, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Soumitra S. Bhuyan, Haoran Bi, Sibhatu Biadgilign, Raluca Bievel-Radulescu, Naif K. 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Demetriades, Edgar Denova‐Gutiérrez, Tadios Niguss Derese, Ismail Dergaa, Kebede Deribe, Hunegnaw Almaw Derseh, Nikolaos Dervenis, Emina Dervišević, Hardik Dineshbhai Desai, Abraham Aregay Desta, Vinoth Gnana Chellaiyan Devanbu, Pradeep Kumar Devarakonda, Syed Masudur Rahman Dewan, Arkadeep Dhali, Kuldeep Dhama, Sreedhar Dharmagadda, Mandira Lamichhane Dhimal, Meghnath Dhimal, Bibha Dhungel, Marcello Di Pumpo, Diana Dias da Silva, Daniel Díaz, Luis Antonio Diaz, Kimia Didehvar, Elangovan Dilipan, Lauren K. Dillard, Xueting Ding, Saeid Doaei, Sushil Dohare, Клара Докова, Mario D’Oria, Fariba Dorostkar, E. Ray Dorsey, Ojas Prakashbhai Doshi, Leila Doshmangir, Robert Kokou Dowou, Menayit Tamrat Dresse, Tim Driscoll, Ashel Chelsea Dsouza, Jiang Du, John Dube, Judy R. Dubno, Emeka W. Dumbili, Samuel Carvalho Dumith, Bruce Bartholow Duncan, André Rodrigues Durães, Oyewole Christopher Durojaiye, Ashit Kumar Dutta, Siddhartha Dutta, Sulagna Dutta, Osamudiamen Ebohon, Ejemai Eboreime, Lamiaa Labieb Mahmoud Ebraheim, Alireza Ebrahimi, Mohammad Hossein Ebrahimi, Abdelaziz Ed‐Dra, David Edvardsson, Ferry Efendi, Behrad Eftekhari, Foolad Eghbali, Ashkan Eighaei Sedeh, Terje Andreas Eikemo, Ebrahim Eini, Michael Ekholuenetale, Temitope Cyrus Ekundayo, Rabie Adel El Arab, Abdelfatteh El Omri, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Mohamed Ahmed Eladl, Reza Elahi, Said El‐Ashker, Rana Elbeshbeishy, Noha Mousaad Elemam, Ghada Metwally Tawfik ElGohary, Muhammed Elhadi, Mohamed Elhoumed, Waseem El‐Huneidi, Omar El Meligy, Mohamed A. Elmonem, Rami Elmorsi, Mohamed Hassan Elnaem, Gihan ELNahas, Mohammed Elshaer, Ibrahim Elsohaby, Abdelgawad Salah Abdelgawad Eltahawy, Tadele Emagneneh, Misganu Endriyas, Ryenchindorj Erkhembayar, Christopher Imokhuede Esezobor, Derese Eshetu, Majid Eslami, Narges Eslami, Rafaela Cavalheiro do Espírito Santo, Kara Estep, Oghenowede Eyawo, Ugochukwu Anthony Eze, Elochukwu Ezenwankwo, Heidar Fadavian, Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe, Omotayo Francis Fagbule, Ayesha Fahim, Saman Fahimi, Aamir Fahira, Ildar Fakhradiyev, Aliasghar Fakhri‐Demeshghieh, Luca Falzone, Qiping Fan, Mohammad Farahmand, Ali Faramarzi, Mohammad Fareed, Zaki Farhana, Luciana Costa Faria, Carla Sofia e Sá Farinha, MoezAlIslam E. Faris, André Faro, Syed Muhammad Yousaf Farooq, Hossein Farrokhpour, Fatemeh Farshad, Farima Farsi, Folorunso O. Fasina, Modupe Margaret Fasina, Ali Fatehizadeh, Davood Fathi, Zareen Fatima, Mohammad Fayaz, Pooria Fazeli, Valery L. Feigin, Alireza Feizkhah, Gelana Fekadu, Ginenus Fekadu, Ulrich Membe Femoe, Talukdar Raian Ferdous, Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Rodrigo Fernández‐Jiménez, Pietro Ferrara, Alize J Ferrari, Nuno Ferreira, Getahun Fetensa, Bikila Regassa Feyisa, Alexander Finnemore, Claudio Fiorilla, Florian Fischer, Ida Fitriana, Federica Fogacci, Morẹ́nikẹ́ Oluwátóyìn Foláyan, Artem Alekseevich Fomenkov, Marco Fonzo, Lisa M Force, Daniela Fortuna, Matteo Foschi, Maryam Fotouhi, Kayode Raphael Fowobaje, Richard Charles Franklin, Alberto Freitas, Jinming Fu, Takeshi Fukumoto, Ami Fukunaga, John E Fuller, G Sridevi, Péter Gaál, Muktar A Gadanya, Dominic Dormenyo Gadeka, Lebo F. Gafane‐Matemane, Márió Gajdács, Yaseen Galali, Dinara Galiyeva, Silvano Gallus, Dhanraj Ganapathy, Balasankar Ganesan, G Shivaprakash, Xiang Gao, Yijie Gao, Bashiru Garba, Miguel Garcia‐Argibay, David García‐Azorín, William M. Gardner, Wendy Espinoza, Zisis Gatzioufas, Prem Gautam, Rupesh K. Gautam, Bamba Gaye, Hong‐Han Ge, Feven Sahle Gebre, Miglas Welay Gebregergis, Mesfin Gebrehiwot, Miesa Gelchu, Stefano Gelibter, Nsikakabasi Samuel George, Lemma Getacher, Genanew Kassie Getahun, Kalab Yigermal Gete, Peter W. Gething, Keyghobad Ghadiri, Fataneh Ghadirian, Amir Ghaffari Jolfayi, Arin Ghamkhar, Shakiba Ghasemi Assl, Fariba Ghassemi, Ramy Mohamed Ghazy, Sama Ghoba, Maryam Gholamalizadeh, Zainab Gholami, Nasim Gholizadeh, Zeinab Ghorbani, Elena Ghotbi, Arun Digambarrao Ghuge, Alessandro Gialluisi, Konstantinos Giannakis, Syed Abdullah Gilani, Tiffany K. Gill, Bikash Ranjan Giri, Alem Girmay, Alessandro Girombelli, László Göbölös, Anil Kumar Goel, Archit Goel, Rajesh Kumar Goel, Lay Hoon Goh, Kimiya Gohari, Mahaveer Golechha, Ali Golestani, Davide Golinelli, Melika Golmohammadi, Wenping Gong, Alessandra C. Goulart, Ayman Grada, Simon Matthew Graham, Michal Grivna, Shi‐Yang Guan, Giovanni Guarducci, Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari, Mesay Dechasa, Avirup Guha, Stefano Guicciardi, Sheffali Gulati, Sasidhar Gunturu, Cui Guo, Xingzhi Guo, Zhao-Yu Guo, Zhifeng Guo, Bhawna Gupta, Gaurav Gupta, Lalit Gupta, Rajeev Gupta, Reyna Alma Gutiérrez, Roberth Steven Gutiérrez-Murillo, José Guzmán-Esquivel, Abrham Tesfaye Habteyes, Awoke Derbie Habteyohannes, Tesfahun Simon Hadaro, Najah R Hadi, Zahra Hadian, Abdul Hafiz, Sarah Hafsia, Faraidoon Haghdoost, Arian Haghtalab, Nguyen Hai Nam, Addisalem Haile, Demewoz Haile, Pritam Halder, Sebastian Haller, Rabih Halwani, Kosar Hikmat Hama Aziz, Islam Hamad, Randah R Hamadeh, Samer Hamidi, Erin B Hamilton, Ahmad Hammoud, Chieh Han, Hannah Han, Asif Hanif, Nasrin Hanifi, Graeme J. Hankey, Fahad Hanna, Ashanul Haque, Md. 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Yassin, Yuichi Yasufuku, Sanni Yaya, Pengpeng Ye, Meghdad Yeganeh, Ali Cem Yekdeş, Mohammad Hossein YektaKooshali, Kuanysh Yergaliyev, Subah Abderehim Yesuf, Saber Yezli, Siyan Yi, Dehui Yin, Paul Yip, Malede Berihun Yismaw, Yazachew Engida Yismaw, Dong Keon Yon, Naohiro Yonemoto, Seok‐Jun Yoon, Mustafa Z Younis, Saideh Yousefi, Abdilahi Yousuf, Chuanhua Yu, Yong Yu, Hui Yuan, Faith H Yuh, Ghazala Yunus, Umar Yunusa, Siddhesh Zadey, Vesna Zadnik, Mubashir Zafar, Manijeh Zaghampour, Emilia Zainal Abidin, Fathiah Zakham, Nazar Zaki, Giulia Zamagni, Nelson Zamora, Hussaini Zandam, Aurora Zanghì, Heather J. Zar, Kourosh Zarea, Mohammed Zawiah, Mohammed G M Zeariya, Abay Mulu Zenebe, Sebastian Zensen, Nejimu Biza Zepro, Eyael M Zeru, Tiansong Zhan, Yongle Zhan, Beijian Zhang, Casper J. P. Zhang, Haijun Zhang, Julio Min Fei Zhang, Kexin Zhang, Liqun Zhang, Meixin Zhang, Xiaoyi Zhang, Xiu‐Hang Zhang, Yunquan Zhang, Zhiqiang Zhang, Ш.Б. Жангелова, Hanqing Zhao, Jianhui Zhao, Jiefeng Zhao, Yang Zhao, Zhongyi Zhao, Anthony Zhong, Claire Chenwen Zhong, Jiayan Zhou, Juexiao Zhou, Bin Zhu, Abzal Zhumagaliuly, Magdalena Zielińska, Ghazal Zoghi, Mohamed Ali Zoromba, Zhiyong Zou, Rafat Zrieq, Liesl Zühlke, Lilik Zuhriyah, Alimuddin Zumla, Ahed Zyoud, Sa’ed H. Zyoud, Shaher H. Zyoud, Eve E Wool, Christopher J L Murray · 发表于：The Lancet · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1016/s0140-6736(25)01917-8 · 被引用次数：381 · 研究领域：Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management、Autopsy Techniques and Outcomes、Health disparities and outcomes

BACKGROUND: Timely and comprehensive analyses of causes of death stratified by age, sex, and location are essential for shaping effective health policies aimed at reducing global mortality. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023 provides cause-specific mortality estimates measured in counts, rates, and years of life lost (YLLs). GBD 2023 aimed to enhance our understanding of the relationship between age and cause of death by quantifying the probability of dying before age 70 years (70q0) and the mean age at death by cause and sex. This study enables comparisons of the impact of causes of death over time, offering a deeper understanding of how these causes affect global populations. METHODS: GBD 2023 produced estimates for 292 causes of death disaggregated by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 660 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2023. We used a modelling tool developed for GBD, the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to estimate cause-specific death rates for most causes. We computed YLLs as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. Probability of death was calculated as the chance of dying from a given cause in a specific age period, for a specific population. Mean age at death was calculated by first assigning the midpoint age of each age group for every death, followed by computing the mean of all midpoint ages acros...