Analysis and Prediction Study on the Disease Burden of Inflammatory Bowel Disease Among Chinese Women of the Reproductive Age

作者：Chun-Ying Xie, Siqi Shi, Xiaoyun Li, Shimin Guo, Ji-Mei Xiao, Huihui Xie, Shu Cai · 发表于：International Journal of Women s Health · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.2147/ijwh.s551379 · 研究领域：Pregnancy and Medication Impact、Inflammatory Bowel Disease、Reproductive System and Pregnancy

Purpose: To analyze the disease burden of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) among Chinese women of reproductive age (WRA) from 1990 to 2021, as well as the projected trends through 2035. Patients and Methods: A segmented regression analysis was carried out to assess the temporal trend of the disease burden. Additionally, the age period cohort (APC) model was applied to explore the impact of each factor on IBD. Based on the APC model, a Bayesian approach was used to predict the disease burden during the period from 2022 to 2035. Results: In 2021, the number of Chinese WRA with IBD was approximately 38,701, with a standardized prevalence rate of 9.47 per 100,000, both of which were lower than the global averages. From 1990 to 2021, the standardized prevalence rate of IBD among Chinese WRA showed an upward trend with an average annual percentage change (AAPC) of 1.53%, while the standardized DALY rate of IBD showed a downward trend with an AAPC of -3.36%. The APC model showed that the longitudinal age curves of IBD prevalence and DALY rate increased with age. Over time, the risk of IBD among Chinese WRA showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing, while the risk of DALY showed an overall downward trend with the passage of time. Results regarding birth cohorts indicated that the risk of IBD among Chinese WRA gradually increased with the advancement in birth cohorts, whereas the risk of DALY gradually decreased. Conclusion: Age, period, and birth cohort have significant ...