The Role of Climate Change in the Expansion of Dengue
作者：Rafael Cesário de Abreu, I. Fernández, Swapnil Mishra, Bernardo Gutierrez, Rhys Inward, Cathal Mills, Eduardo Ortíz, Leonardo Soares Bastos, Laís Picinini Freitas, Luiz Max Carvalho, Seth Flaxman, Samir Bhatt, Samuel V. Scarpino, Flávio Codeço Coelho, Robert C. Reiner, Prathyush Sambaturu, Houriiyah Tegally, Simon Cauchemez, Oswaldo Gonçalves Cruz, César V. Munayco, José Alberto Díaz-Quiñónez, Dann Mitchell, Fraser C. Lott, Ben Lambert, William M. de Souza, Francesca Dominici, Oliver G. Pybus, Cláudia Torres Codeço, Marcia C. Castro, Moritz U. G. Kraemer, Sarah Sparrow · 发表于：medRxiv · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1101/2025.10.06.25337235 · 被引用次数：2 · 研究领域：Mosquito-borne diseases and control
Abstract Climate change-related weather and extreme events are increasing in intensity and frequency(Nath and Palmer 2026), affecting infectious disease transmission globally(Mora et al. 2022). Dengue, a climate-sensitive vector-borne disease, to which over half the world’s population is at risk of infection, has expanded its geographical range over recent decades(Lim et al. 2025; Bhatt et al. 2013). The 2023/24 season marked the largest ever dengue outbreak year in the Americas, coinciding with the hottest year on record there(“Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia - INMET,” n.d.). Here, we use statistical models to investigate the Brazil 2023/24 dengue season and attribute how anthropogenic climate change impacted it. We analyze >20 years of dengue data across >5000 municipalities and find that observed temperature anomalies in 2023/24 increased dengue incidence in Brazil by 34% (95% CI: 22, 43%) accounting for population immunity. There was spatial heterogeneity across the country where in municipalities of southern Brazil temperatures were pushed into optimal thermal conditions for dengue transmission. For the best fitting model we found that in northern Brazil, 2023/24 temperatures became too high for effective transmission, resulting in lower dengue incidence compared to a counterfactual scenario without anthropogenic climate change, though with larger uncertainty. We test the generalizability of our model to high altitude areas in Mexico, where dengue has been expan...