Tracking myopia development through axial length progression: a retrospective longitudinal study

作者：Zhengyang Tao, Jiao Wang, Zongyue Lv, Guangyi Hu, Zhiyong Xu, Lifei Chen, Hongwei Deng · 发表于：Annals of Medicine · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1080/07853890.2025.2563752 · 被引用次数：6 · 研究领域：Ophthalmology and Visual Impairment Studies、Corneal surgery and disorders、Ophthalmology and Eye Disorders

Background Current prediction models for myopia progression remain limited in their ability to provide personalized risk assessments.Objective To examine the predictive role of axial length (AL) progression in progressive myopia.Introduction This retrospective cohort study analysed longitudinal ocular biometric data collected through repeated measurements in a school-based population.Subjects The study population comprised a longitudinal cohort of 1697 Chinese students aged 6–14 years, with ocular biometric data collected between December 2017 and May 2019 (18-month follow-up period).Method The dataset was randomly partitioned into development and validation cohorts at a 2:1 ratio, with two-thirds of the data allocated for nomogram model construction and the remaining one-third reserved for validation. The axial length-to-corneal radius (AL/CR) ratio was defined as the AL divided by the mean CR value measured in 90° meridians and 180° meridians: AL/CR = 2AL/(CR90° + CR180°). The primary outcome is progressive myopia, defined as an annualized spherical equivalent (SE) progression rate ≥0.75 DS/year over 1.5 years. The key predictor, first-visit AL progression, reflects 6-month axial elongation from baseline.Results The baseline subjects (N = 1697) were divided into the training set (N = 1132) and the validation set (N = 565). Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated AL/CR in baseline (OR = 70.414, 95%CI: 22.795–217.511, p < .001) and first-visit AL progression (OR =...