Analysis of Carbon Emissions and Ecosystem Service Value Caused by Land Use Change, and Its Coupling Characteristics in the Wensu Oasis, Northwest China

作者：Yiqi Zhao, Songrui Ning, An Yan, Pingan Jiang, Hui Ren, Ning Li, Tingting Huo, Jiandong Sheng · 发表于：Agronomy · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.3390/agronomy15102307 · 被引用次数：5 · 研究领域：Land Use and Ecosystem Services、Regional Development and Environment、Environmental Changes in China

Oases in arid regions are crucial for sustaining agricultural production and ecological stability, yet few studies have simultaneously examined the coupled dynamics of land use/cover change (LUCC), carbon emissions, and ecosystem service value (ESV) at the oasis–agricultural scale. This gap limits our understanding of how different land use trajectories shape trade-offs between carbon processes and ecosystem services in fragile arid ecosystems. This study examines the spatiotemporal interactions between land use carbon emissions and ESV from 1990 to 2020 in the Wensu Oasis, Northwest China, and predicts their future trajectories under four development scenarios. Multi-period remote sensing data, combined with the carbon emission coefficient method, modified equivalent factor method, spatial autocorrelation analysis, the coupling coordination degree model, and the PLUS model, were employed to quantify LUCC patterns, carbon emission intensity, ESV, and its coupling relationships. The results indicated that (1) cultivated land, construction land, and unused land expanded continuously (by 974.56, 66.77, and 1899.36 km2), while grassland, forests, and water bodies declined (by 1363.93, 77.92, and 1498.83 km2), with the most pronounced changes occurring between 2000 and 2010; (2) carbon emission intensity increased steadily—from 23.90 × 104 t in 1990 to 169.17 × 104 t in 2020—primarily driven by construction land expansion—whereas total ESV declined by 46.37%, with water and grassl...