Quantifying the impact of a broadly protective sarbecovirus vaccine in a future SARS-X pandemic

作者：Charles Whittaker, Gregory Barnsley, Daniela Olivera Mesa, Victoria A. Cox, Daniel Joseph Laydon, Chee Wah Tan, Feng Zhu, Rob Johnson, Patrick Doohan, Lilith K. Whittles, Gemma L. Nedjati-Gilani, Peter Winskill, Alexandra B. Hogan, Arminder Deol, Christinah Mukandavire, Katharina Hauck, David Chien Lye, Lin‐Fa Wang, Oliver John Watson, Azra C. Ghani · 发表于：Nature Communications · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1038/s41467-025-63399-x · 被引用次数：11 · 研究领域：SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research、COVID-19 epidemiological studies、Viral Infections and Outbreaks Research

COVID-19 has underscored the need for more timely access to vaccines during future pandemics. This has motivated development of broad-spectrum vaccines providing protection against entire viral families, which could be stockpiled and deployed rapidly following detection. Using mathematical modelling, we assess the utility of a broadly protective sarbecovirus vaccine during a hypothetical SARS-X outbreak, for a range of implementation strategies including ring-vaccination, spatial-targeting and mass vaccination of high-risk groups. Broadly protective sarbecovirus vaccine ring- or spatial strategies alone are insufficient to contain epidemics driven by a SARS-CoV-2-like virus, but when paired with rapid isolation and quarantine, can achieve containment of a SARS-CoV-1-like virus. Where suppression fails, broadly protective sarbecovirus vaccine utilisation still reduces the effective reproduction number and slows epidemic growth - buying valuable time for health-system response and virus-specific vaccine development. Vaccination of high-risk populations with the broadly protective sarbecovirus vaccine ahead of virus-specific vaccine availability could reduce mortality and enable shorter and less stringent non-pharmaceutical interventions to be imposed; results are sensitive to vaccine properties (e.g., efficacy), health system capabilities (e.g. rollout speed) and timeline to virus-specific vaccine availability. Our modelling suggests that broadly protective sarbecovirus vaccine...