Global, regional, and national burden of tuberculosis, 1990–2050: a systematic comparative analysis based on retrospective cross-sectional of GBD 2021 and WHO surveillance systems

作者：Fan Jiang, Xuemei Li, Qing Qiao, Mingming Zhang, Yuan Tian, Shuang Zhou, Yufeng Li, Ruizi Ni, Yajing An, Yanhua Liu, Lingxia Zhang, Wenping Gong · 发表于：International Journal of Surgery · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1097/js9.0000000000003412 · 被引用次数：7 · 研究领域：Tuberculosis Research and Epidemiology、Diagnosis and treatment of tuberculosis、Immune responses and vaccinations

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) persists as a leading global health threat. Current surveillance is fragmented, and the surgical burden of drug-resistant forms remains poorly quantified. METHODS: Using GBD 2021 (1990-2050) and WHO-GHO (2000-2021), we estimated mortality, incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 204 countries by age, sex, and four TB subtypes: latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI), drug-susceptible tuberculosis (DS-TB), multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB), and extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis (XDR-TB). We compared WHO and GBD figures in eight high-burden countries, applied joinpoint regression to project trends, and quantified risk-factor contributions. RESULTS: In 2021, global TB rates per 100,000 were: prevalence 236.14 (95% UI 214.51-260.20), incidence 103.00 (92.21-114.91), deaths 13.96 (12.61-15.72), and DALYs 580.26 (522.37-649.82). Sociodemographic index (SDI) gradients were steepest for XDR-TB. Smoking, high alcohol use and elevated fasting glucose explained >0.1% of DS-TB DALYs each. WHO-GBD mortality diverged in Bangladesh, Nigeria, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo; incidence differed markedly in Indonesia and the Philippines. Projections indicate rising mortality after 2030 in Indonesia and the Western Pacific under high-risk scenarios. CONCLUSIONS: XDR-TB is emerging as the fastest-growing threat. Discrepancies between WHO and GBD compromise resource allocation; harmonisation is urgently needed, especi...