Extreme gradient boosting-based explainable machine learning model for predicting significant fibrosis in autoimmune hepatitis

作者：Zhiyi Zhang, Jing Wu, Jian Wang, Yun Chen, Renling Yao, Li Zhu, Y. G. Li, Shaoqiu Zhang, Yifan Pan, Fei Cao, Yuanyuan Li, Jia‐Cheng Liu, Yuxin Chen, Shengxia Yin, Xin Tong, Qun Zhang, Xinrong Zhang, Yuanwang Qiu, Chuanwu Zhu, Huali Wang, Chao Wu, Rui Huang · 发表于：QJM · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1093/qjmed/hcaf215 · 被引用次数：6 · 研究领域：Liver Diseases and Immunity、Liver Disease Diagnosis and Treatment、Liver Disease and Transplantation

BACKGROUND: Accurate assessment of liver fibrosis is crucial for patients with autoimmune hepatitis (AIH). AIM: We developed and validated a non-invasive explainable machine learning (ML) model for the prediction of liver fibrosis in patients with AIH. DESIGN: A retrospective multicenter study of patients with AIH with liver biopsy was conducted. METHODS: Patients were randomly divided into a training set and a test set. Nine ML models were built, including logistic regression, k-nearest neighbors, Support vector machine, random forest, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), gradient boosting, Adaboost, decision tree, and Gaussian naive bayes. The best model was compared with aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI) and fibrosis index based on four factors (FIB-4) on the test set by area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC). Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) analysis and local interpretable model-agnostic explanations (LIME) were used for model explanation. RESULTS: A total of 261 patients with AIH with a median age of 54.0 (interquartile range: 47.0-62.0) years and 82.8% of female sex were included. Among nine ML models, the XGBoost model exhibited superior predictive performance. The model achieved an AUC of 0.791 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.668-0.890) in the test set which was higher than APRI (AUC: 0.557, 95% CI: 0.380-0.732, P < 0.001) and FIB-4 (AUC: 0.625, 95% CI: 0.452-0.789, P < 0.001). SHAP and LIME analysis revealed that platelet was the...