Scenario Projections of COVID-19 Burden in the US, 2024-2025

作者：Sara L. Loo, Sung-mok Jung, Lucie Contamin, Emily Howerton, Samantha J. Bents, Harry Hochheiser, Michael C. Runge, Claire P. Smith, Erica C. Carcelén, Katie Yan, Joseph C. Lemaitre, Emily Przykucki, Clifton McKee, K.T. Sato, Alison L. Hill, Matteo Chinazzi, Jessica T. Davis, Clara Bay, Alessandro Vespignani, Shi Chen, Rajib Paul, Daniel Janies, Jean‐Claude Thill, Sean M. Moore, T. Alex Perkins, Ajitesh Srivastava, Majd Al Aawar, Kaiming Bi, Shraddha Ramdas Bandekar, Anass Bouchnita, Spencer J. Fox, Lauren Ancel Meyers, Przemyslaw Porebski, Srinivasan Venkatramanan, Bryan Lewis, Jiangzhuo Chen, Madhav Marathe, M. Ben-Nun, James Turtle, Pete Riley, Katriona Shea, Cécile Viboud, Justin Lessler, Shaun Truelove · 发表于：JAMA Network Open · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2025.32469 · 被引用次数：7 · 研究领域：COVID-19 epidemiological studies、SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research、Immune responses and vaccinations

Importance: COVID-19 remains a disease with high burden in the US, prompting continued debate about optimal targets for annual vaccination. Objective: To project COVID-19 burden in the US for April 2024 to April 2025 under 6 scenarios of immune escape (20% and 50% per year) and levels of vaccine recommendation (no recommendation, vaccination for individuals at high risk only, vaccination for all eligible groups) and to assess the potential benefit of vaccine recommendations in reducing disease burden. Design, Setting, and Participants: For this decision analytical model, the US Scenario Modeling Hub, a collaborative modeling effort, convened 9 teams to provide scenario projections of US COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths for April 2024 to April 2025, under 6 scenarios combining levels of immune escape and possible vaccine recommendations. Exposure: Annually reformulated vaccines were assumed to be 75% effective against hospitalization for variants circulating on June 15, 2024, and available on September 1, 2024. Age- and state-specific coverage was assumed to be as reported in September 2023 to April 2024. Main Outcomes and Measures: Ensemble estimates were made for weekly COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths. Projections are presented for relative and absolute prevented hospitalizations and deaths averted due to vaccination over the April 2024 to April 2025 period. Results: For the US population (332 million, with an estimated 58 million aged ≥65 years), COVID-19 was expec...