The Impact of Renewable Energy Use, Financial Development, and Industrialization on CO2 Emissions in Middle-Income Economies—A GMM-PVAR Analysis

作者：Ismail Haloui, Hayat Amzil, Guo-Song-Rui Yang, Ibrahim Fourati, Yang Li · 发表于：Sustainability · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.3390/su17188178 · 被引用次数：10 · 研究领域：Energy, Environment, Economic Growth、Energy, Environment, and Transportation Policies、Energy and Environment Impacts

Middle-income economies contribute significantly to global CO2 emissions as they pursue economic development, creating an urgent need to understand emission drivers. This article investigates the impact of renewable energy use, financial development, and industrialization on CO2 emissions in 71 middle-income countries (32 upper-middle income, 39 lower-middle income) between 2002 and 2020. We used the advanced Generalized Method of Moments Panel Vector Autoregression (GMM-PVAR) approach to address endogeneity and reveal complex relationships among the variables. Our findings revealed that renewable energy utilization had no substantial influence on emissions reduction in either upper- or lower-middle-income countries, challenging conventional policy assumptions. Financial development consistently reduces emissions across both income groups (−0.08% and −0.06%, respectively). Industrialization has heterogeneous effects, increasing emissions by 2.03 percent in upper-middle-income countries and with no effect in lower-middle-income countries. Granger causality tests illustrated a bidirectional relationship connecting CO2 emissions and financial development, whereas no causal link was found between CO2 emissions and renewable energy use. These findings prove the importance of coordinated policies that strengthen financial systems and sustainable industrial practices.