Modelling Coastal Connectivity in the Mediterranean Sea: Similar Effects of Changes in Hydrodynamics and Reduction in Planktonic Duration

作者：Marco Andrello, Mohammadreza Mirzaei, Giovanni Quattrocchi, Matteo Sinerchia · 发表于：Global Ecology and Biogeography · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1111/geb.70116 · 被引用次数：3 · 研究领域：Coral and Marine Ecosystems Studies、Marine and coastal plant biology、Marine Ecology and Invasive Species

ABSTRACT Aim Climate change can affect the dispersal of marine organisms and the connectivity of their populations through changes in hydrodynamics and reduction of propagule planktonic duration. Few studies have investigated both these effects over regional to global scales across a variety of release dates and sites. Here, we use hydrodynamic Lagrangian modelling to investigate these effects, their seasonal variation, and how they are modulated by the planktonic duration of dispersing propagules. Location Coastal areas of the Mediterranean Sea. Time Period 2020‐decade, 2050‐decade and 2090‐decade. Major Taxa Studied Marine coastal organisms with planktonic propagules dispersed passively by ocean currents (e.g., seagrasses, mussels, sea urchins). Methods Simulations of propagule dispersal were carried out using particle tracking model simulations driven by sea current velocity fields derived from the POLCOMS hydrodynamic model, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. We released propagules over three decades and followed their transport for planktonic durations of up to 60 days. We quantified connectivity using three site‐level variables (i.e., dispersal distance, coastal retention and netflow) and a clustering approach. Results Changes in hydrodynamics and reduction in planktonic duration had similar effects on connectivity, leading to changes of up to 60% of the values of the 2020‐decade. While the largest effects of changes in hydrodynamics were confined to fe...