Establishment and validation of a nomogram for predicting acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease based on the C-reactive protein–triglyceride–glucose index

作者：Dandan Zhang, Lianbo Zhao, Zheng Wang, Ming Zhai, Yan Chen, Chi-Hui Fang · 发表于：Medicine · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1097/md.0000000000042754 · 被引用次数：2 · 研究领域：Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) Research、Inflammatory Biomarkers in Disease Prognosis、Inflammation biomarkers and pathways

The C-reactive protein-triglyceride-glucose index (CTI) is becoming a new indicator for the comprehensive evaluation of inflammation and insulin resistance severity. This study aimed to analyze the correlation between CTI and the risk of acute exacerbation in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), as well as its influencing factors, and construct and validate a risk prediction nomogram. We selected 447 COPD patients who visited the First People's Hospital of Mengcheng County from January 2020 to May 2024, among whom 266 were acute exacerbation patients. They were randomly divided into a training set and a validation set in a 7:3 ratio. Clinical data were collected, and multiple logistic regression was used to explore the risk factors for acute exacerbation in COPD patients. Based on the results of the multiple logistic regression, a risk prediction nomogram was constructed. Internal validation of the nomogram was performed using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis to assess discrimination, Hosmer-Lemeshow test and calibration curve analysis to assess calibration, and decision curve analysis to evaluate the clinical usefulness of the nomogram. The results of multiple logistic regression analysis showed that smoking, hypertension, red blood cells, and CTI were risk factors for acute exacerbation of COPD (P < .05). A risk prediction nomogram for acute exacerbation of COPD was constructed based on the results of multiple logistic regression analysis. The recei...