Multiscale spatiotemporal dynamics and driving mechanisms of water supply–demand imbalance in the Yangtze River economic belt

作者：Xiao Wang, Peng Kang, Yan Jiang, Zhenzhen Pan · 发表于：Ecological Indicators · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.114139 · 被引用次数：4 · 研究领域：Water resources management and optimization、Water-Energy-Food Nexus Studies、Water Resources and Sustainability

Water resource management is critical to addressing sustainable development challenges. While existing studies often focus on the overall water supply–demand balance, few have examined its seasonal variability and spatial heterogeneity at multiple scales. Even rarer are studies that incorporate both water quantity and quality in assessing supply–demand balance. This study presents a high-resolution spatiotemporal assessment of water supply–demand imbalance in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB), considering both water quantity and quality. A machine learning approach, specifically random forest modeling, was used to quantify the relative contributions of land use, climate, topography, vegetation, and socio-economic factors to the imbalance. The results show significant spatial and seasonal mismatches: 20.99 % of the basin experiences water deficits, with the most severe imbalances in developed regions such as Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Anhui, primarily driven by water quality constraints. Integrating water quality data in Yunnan and Hubei expanded deficit areas by 49.11 % and 7.12 %, respectively. Winter saw the highest proportion of deficits (57.35 %), while summer had the lowest (1.17 %). At the grid scale, cultivated land area was the key factor; at the city scale, forest cover played a crucial role; and at the provincial scale, built-up land had the strongest impact on water quality imbalance. These findings highlight that water supply and demand imbalances result from com...