Global excess deaths associated with heatwaves in 2023 and the contribution of human-induced climate change

作者：Samuel Hundessa, Wenzhong Huang, Rongbin Xu, Zhengyu Yang, Qi Zhao, Antonio Gasparrini, Ben Armstrong, Michelle L. Bell, Veronika Huber, Aleš Urban, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coêlho, Francesco Sera, Shilu Tong, Dominic Royé, Jan Kyselý, Francesca de’Donato, Malcolm Mistry, Aurelio Tobı́as, Carmen Íñiguez, Martina S. Ragettli, Simon Hales, Souzana Achilleos, Jochem O. Klompmaker, Shanshan Li, Yuming Guo · 发表于：The Innovation · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1016/j.xinn.2025.101110 · 被引用次数：8 · 研究领域：Climate Change and Health Impacts、Air Quality and Health Impacts、Thermoregulation and physiological responses

An unprecedented heatwave swept the globe in 2023, marking it one of the hottest years on record and raising concerns about its health impacts. However, a comprehensive assessment of the heatwave-related mortality and its attribution to human-induced climate change remains lacking. We aim to address this gap by analyzing high-resolution climate and mortality data from 2,013 locations across 67 countries/territories using a three-stage modeling approach. First, we estimated historical heatwave-mortality associations using a quasi-Poisson regression model with distributed lag structures, considering lag effects, seasonality, and within-week variations. Second, we pooled the estimates in meta-regression, accounting for spatial heterogeneity and potential changes in heatwave-mortality associations over time. Third, we predicted grid-specific (0.5 0.5) association in 2023 and calculated the heatwave-related excess deaths, death ratio, and death rate per million people. Attribution analysis was conducted by comparing heatwave-related mortality under factual and counterfactual climate scenarios. We estimated 178,486 excess deaths (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI], 159,892≥204,147) related to the 2023 heatwave, accounting for 0.73% of global deaths, corresponding to 23 deaths per million people. The highest mortality rates occurred in Southern (120, 95% eCI, 116≥126), Eastern (107, 95% eCI, 100≥114), and Western Europe (66, 95% eCI, 62≥70), where the excess death ratio was als...