Construct a clinical prediction model of cumulative live birth rate for IVF/ICSI in female patients of different ages

作者：Chunya Ye, Panhavolak Chhoon, Hedong Lu, Min Li, Xiao Jiang, Lu Xie, Dongmei Ji, Zhiguo Zhang, Yunxia Cao, Weiwei Zou · 发表于：Reproduction and Fertility · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1530/raf-25-0062 · 被引用次数：1 · 研究领域：Reproductive Health and Technologies、Ovarian function and disorders、Reproductive Biology and Fertility

Abstract: In order to determine the number of eggs to be retrieved to maximize live birth outcomes, this study aimed to develop a clinical prediction model that would identify important predictors of cumulative live birth rate after intracytoplasmic sperm injection or in vitro fertilization in women of different ages. A total of 374 infertile women undergoing assisted reproductive treatment at the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University between December 2020 and December 2023 were included and categorized into three age groups: <35 years, 35-39 years, and 40 years or older. Clinical data, laboratory results, ovulation induction parameters, and pregnancy outcomes were examined. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression was used for predictive modeling, and linear regression equations were used to measure the correlation between the probability of a live birth and the quantity of retrieved eggs. The number of metaphase II eggs and high-score blastocysts were found to be the most predictive factors in women under 35, with live birth probabilities of 99% after 15 eggs were recovered. The most predictive factors among women aged 35-39 were the number of follicles and metaphase II eggs. The live birth probability was 90% when 20 eggs were retrieved. A live birth was predicted by the quantity of retrieved oocytes only for women aged 40 years or older; retrieving 14 eggs resulted in a 50% chance of giving birth. The proposed model provides age-specific ...