Using Scenarios for Reducing Uncertainties in Biodiversity Conservation: From Global Targets to European Steppes

作者：Cristian Pérez‐Granados, Bernd Lenzner, Mario Dı́az, Ana Benítez‐López, Ana Teresa Marques, Rocío Tarjuelo, Julia Gómez‐Catasús, Núria Roura‐Pascual, Matthias Vögeli, Francisco Valera, Radovan Václav, Piotr Tryjanowski, Juán Traba, Andrea Santangeli, Gema Ruiz Jiménez, Natalia Revilla‐Martín, François Mougeot, Francisco Moreira, Manuel B. Morales, Santi Mañosa, Germán M. López‐Iborra, Guillaume Latombe, Marina Golivets, Elena D. Concepción, Xabier Cabodevilla, Lluís Brotons, Carolina Bravo, Mattia Brambilla, Gérard Bota, Luis Bolonio, Beatriz Arroyo, Julia Zurdo, João Paulo Silva, David Serrano, Ana Sanz‐Pérez, Iván Salgado, Martin Šálek, Pedro Sáez‐Gómez, Margarita Reverter, Alejandro Onrubia, Pedro P. Olea, B. Nikolov, Carlos A. Martín, Gabriel López‐Poveda, Antonio Leiva, David Giralt, Tiago Mendes, Fabián Casas, Daniel Bustillo‐de la Rosa, Adrián Barrero, João Gameiro · 发表于：Conservation Letters · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1111/conl.13138 · 被引用次数：2 · 研究领域：Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies、Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management、Forest Management and Policy

ABSTRACT Scenario analysis allows assessing how complex socio‐ecological systems might respond to different policy pathways. We used an expert‐based participatory approach to explore how four different European socio‐ecological scenarios could impact (1) the implementation of the Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (KM‐GBF) and (2) the achievement of priority conservation actions for safeguarding European steppe ecosystems. KM‐GBF targets were expected to be met only under the scenario with increased commitment for sustainable development goals and global cooperation, but hardly achievable under the most environment‐adverse and resource‐demanding scenarios. Integrating different views from these scenarios, we identified six overarching recommendations for the conservation of European steppe ecosystems, including improving public awareness, empowering local communities, and promoting the engagement of private companies into conservation planning. Our approach identifies how socioeconomic drivers influence the success of the KM‐GBF and the conservation of European steppes, providing a range of general conservation actions structured and prioritized to be effective under a wide range of likely future developments.