Integrating climate change and land use change into storm flood impact analysis in coastal cities

作者：Qinke Sun, Johan Reyns, Jiayi Fang, Xiaoting Wang, Zhe Wang, Liang Zhou, Min Liu · 发表于：Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102745 · 研究领域：Flood Risk Assessment and Management、Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research、Coastal wetland ecosystem dynamics

Study region Shanghai, China Study focus This paper proposes a comprehensive framework for quantifying storm surge floods in coastal cities by incorporating the influences of both climate change and urbanization. The framework achieves a physically process-based numerical simulation of storm surge-induced flood hazards due to tropical cyclones in coastal cities by coupling the fast flood inundation model (SFINCS) and the land use change model (GeoSOS-FLUS), along with the numerical nested model for storm surges (Delft 3D Flow & Wave). Using a 1000-year tropical cyclone simulated by the STORM model as an example, this study analyzes and maps coastal flood impacts under the moderate climate scenario (SSPs245) and high emission scenario (SSPs585), and also evaluates the impact of land use changes on these scenarios. New hydrological insights for the region Taking Shanghai, China as an example, the results show that by 2100, urban land use changes will lead to an increase in the extent of 1000-year TC flooding areas by 4.91–34.00 %, underestimating the inundation area of storm surges if future urban land use changes are not considered. Additionally, our predictions indicate the vulnerability of Chongming island and Changxing island to the impacts of climate change, despite the protective role of coastal embankments considered in the tropical cyclone storm surge simulation. The results of this study represent an important contribution to a better understanding of how future urban ...