Dynamic Prognostic Models for Colorectal Cancer With Liver Metastases

作者：Qichen Chen, Yiqiao Deng, Kun Wang, Yuan Li, Xinyu Bi, K. Li, Hong Zhao · 发表于：JAMA Network Open · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2025.29093 · 被引用次数：6 · 研究领域：Hepatocellular Carcinoma Treatment and Prognosis、Inflammatory Biomarkers in Disease Prognosis、Ferroptosis and cancer prognosis

Importance: Current prognostic models for colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) primarily incorporate clinicopathologic features assessed at a single time point, resulting in a static risk assessment for individuals. Given that tumor progression is a dynamic process, especially for patients with CRLM, and patients' data are continuously collected during the follow-up visits, dynamic prediction is a natural model for risk assessments via reflecting the latest prognosis, whenever new marker measurements are available. Objective: To develop CRLM prognostic models and a clinical web-based tool to facilitate dynamic predictions. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this retrospective prognostic study, patients with CRLM who underwent resection between January 2014 and January 2021, were included in the training and validation cohorts. Clinicopathologic characteristics and preoperative and postoperative laboratory measurements taken within 12 months after surgery across 9 laboratory markers (carcinoembryonic antigen, carbohydrate antigen 19-9, γ-glutamyl transferase, red blood cell distribution width SD and coefficient of variance, aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index, Fibrous-4 index, S-index, and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio) were collected. Three prediction models for progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) based on a functional random survival forest framework were constructed and compared: model A incorporated only clinicopathologic characterist...