Short-term association between hot nights and mortality: a multicountry analysis in 178 locations considering hourly ambient temperature

作者：Dominic Royé, Francesco Sera, Aurelio Tobı́as, Masahiro Hashizume, Yasushi Honda, Ho Kim, Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera, Shilu Tong, Éric Lavigne, Jan Kyselý, Mathilde Pascal, Francesca de’Donato, Susana das Neves Pereira da Silva, Joana Madureira, Veronika Huber, Aleš Urban, Joel Schwartz, Michelle L. Bell, Ben Armstrong, Carmen Íñiguez, Rosana Abrutzky, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coêlho, Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva, Patricia Matus Correa, Nicolás Valdés Ortega, Haidong Kan, Samuel Osorio, Antonio Gasparrini, Souzana Achilleos, Hans Orru, Ene Indermitte, Niilo Ryti, Alexandra Schneider, Klea Katsouyanni, Antonis Analitis, Fatemeh Mayvaneh, Alireza Enteyari, Raanan Raz, Paola Michelozzi, Yoonhee Kim, Barrak Alahmad, John Paul Cauchi, Magali Hurtado‐Díaz, Eunice Elizabeth Félix Arellano, Ala Overcenco, Jochem O. Klompmaker, Gabriel Carrasco, Xerxes Seposo, Paul Lester Chua, Iulian‐Horia Holobâcă, Yuming Guo, Jouni J. K. Jaakkola, Noah Scovronick, Fiorella Acquaotta, Whanhee Lee, Bertil Forsberg, Martina S. Ragettli, Shanshan Li, Antonella Zanobetti, Valentina Colistro, Trần Ngọc Đăng, Do Van Dung · 发表于：Environment International · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1016/j.envint.2025.109719 · 被引用次数：13 · 研究领域：Climate Change and Health Impacts、Thermoregulation and physiological responses、Thermal Regulation in Medicine

BACKGROUND: The rise in hot nights over recent decades and projections of further increases due to climate change underscores the critical need to understand their impact. This knowledge is essential for shaping public health strategies and guiding adaptation efforts. Despite their significance, research on the implications of hot nights remains limited. OBJECTIVE: This study estimated the association between hot-night excess (the sum of excess heat during the nighttime above a threshold) and duration (the percent of nighttime with a positive excess) based on hourly ambient temperatures and daily mortality in the warm season over multiple locations worldwide. METHODS: We fitted time series regression models to mortality in 178 locations across 44 countries using a distributed lag non-linear model over lags of 0-3 days, controlling for daily maximum temperature and daily mean absolute humidity. Next, we used a multivariate meta-regression model to pool results and estimated attributable burdens. RESULTS: We found a positive, increasing mortality risk with hot-night excess and duration. Assuming 0 as a reference, the pooled relative risks of death associated with extreme excess and duration, defined as the 90th percentile in each index, were both similar at 1.026 (95 % CI, 1.017; 1.036) and 1.026 (95 % CI, 1.013; 1.040). The overall estimated attributable fractions were also observed to be closely similar at 0.60 % (95 % CI, 0.09; 1.10 %) and 0.62 % (95 % CI, 0.00; 1.23 %), res...