Amazon dieback beyond the 21st century under high-emission scenarios by Earth System models

作者：Irina Melnikova, Tomohiro Hajima, Hideo Shiogama, Michiya Hayashi, Akihiko Ito, Kazuya Nishina, Kaoru Tachiiri, Tokuta Yokohata · 发表于：Communications Earth & Environment · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1038/s43247-025-02606-5 · 被引用次数：4 · 研究领域：Ecosystem dynamics and resilience、Global Energy and Sustainability Research、Sustainability and Ecological Systems Analysis

The Amazon rainforest, the world’s largest tropical forest, plays a crucial role in climate regulation but faces risks of dieback under climate change. Here, we examine the Amazon dieback projections from state-of-the-art Earth System Models under high-emission scenarios extending into the 23rd century. Unlike previous studies focused on rapid changes, we investigate both rapid and gradual dieback, capturing drastic productivity declines (>80%). Nine of twelve models project Amazon dieback with variations in timing and spatial extent. The dieback onset is projected within the 21st century under global warming levels ranging from 1.5 to 10.2 °C, triggered by local surface air temperatures above 32.2 ± 4.8 °C and precipitation below 1394.3 ± 306.0 mm year−1, exacerbated by land-use change. We identify large-scale atmospheric circulation changes causing regional drying and warming and examine ecosystem processes contributing to dieback. These findings refine our understanding of Amazon dieback thresholds and mechanisms, highlighting areas for model improvement. Future Amazon dieback could occur during the 21st century, triggered by local annual surface air temperatures above 32.2 °C and precipitation below 1394.3 mm per year, and exacerbated by land-use change, according to an analysis of Earth System Model projections under different levels of warming