Spatial-temporal evolution analysis of multi-scenario land use and ecosystem services base on PLUS-Invest model: A case study in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China

作者：Zhaoxu Zhang, Xutong Li, S. X. Du, Chao Liu, Zhenwei Shi, Cong Yan · 发表于：Sustainable Futures · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1016/j.sftr.2025.101154 · 被引用次数：8 · 研究领域：Land Use and Ecosystem Services、Environmental Changes in China、Remote Sensing and Land Use

Against the backdrop of intensified global warming and food security challenges, land use, as a critical link between human activities and ecosystems, has emerged as a core issue in addressing the contradictions of sustainable development. By selecting habitat quality and carbon storage as key indicators of ecosystem services, this study highlighted the roles of supporting and regulating services in regional land use change and ecological effects research. Based on land use remote sensing data, the study integrated carbon storage density and habitat quality coefficient data to systematically analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of land use patterns and the response mechanisms between carbon storage and habitat quality during the study period. Quantitative methods such as land use dynamics, change intensity index, and transition matrix were employed to describe the transformation characteristics of major land types, including cropland, impervious, forest, and grassland. The InVEST model was utilized to estimate carbon storage and habitat quality for different land types, thereby establishing the spatiotemporal coupling relationship between land use and ecosystem services. To scientifically predict future land use scenarios, four scenario models were constructed: natural development (S1), farmland protection (S2), economic development (S3), and sustainable development (S4). The PLUS model was applied to simulate land use patterns for the year 2030. The main conclusions were as ...